Water. Desalination + reuse
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TECHNOLOGY tons by 2050 - this is less than even current emissions. CSP-desalination will take time to mainstream because many existing and currently planned fossil-fuel desalination plants will remain in operation for some years. Because most fossil-fueled desalination plants will not be totally decommissioned until 2041–43, demand for CSP-desalination technology will grow slowly at first - to meet growing water demand. During this period, it will be essential that the supply of CSP-desalination technology keeps pace with demand, because, without this technology, a number of countries will have to mine their groundwater reserves even more intensively to survive in the short/medium term. Moreover, in the short and medium terms, CSP still will need to be supplemented by fossil fuels for some baseload and peakpower generation. MENA wATEr Crisis dEEpENiNG The severity of the water crisis in the MENA Region varies considerably from one country to another. Different countries, even in the same subregion, face different choices and costs regarding how to close their water gaps. The average adaptation cost in MENA for each additional cubic meter of water required is approximately US$ 0.52, but this cost varies substantially among countries. Algeria's improved agricultural practice can almost bridge the gap at US$ 0.02/m3. At the other extreme, in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the gap will be bridged primarily by desalination at US$ 0.98/m3. Even with adaptation measures, Iraq, Morocco, and the UAE will not be able economically to close their water gaps without additional decreases of irrigated area and/or consumption. Eight of the most water-short countries will carry most of the financial burden of closing the gap. Iraq will bear most of the cost, followed by Egypt, Iran, Israel, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Yemen. The remaining 13 MENA countries combined will bear less than 10% of the total financial burden. For the 21 MENA countries, at current prices, by 2050 the average annual adaptation costs per capita will be approximately US$ 148. By 2050, filling the water gap will cost approximately 6% of current regional GDP. Given that regional GDP will grow by 2050, the actual average share of GDP devoted to providing water supply will be lower. However, countries differ markedly based not only on the severity of their water shortages but also on their projected GDP. In the future, Iraq, Jordan, Morocco and Yemen must be prepared to spend a substantial amount of their GDP on overcoming their water shortages. In Yemen, for example, closing its water gap may take as much as 4% of its GDP. wATEr suppLiEs iN THE fuTurE Desalination will continue to play an everincreasing role in MENA's water supply portfolio. However, if the current trend of using fossil fuel for desalination continues, many MENA countries will face serious energy security problems in general and, for oil-exporting countries, economic problems in particular. Similarly, the environmental implications of scaled-up desalination cannot be ignored. Single pollutants and multiwaste components have adversely affected the marine environment. Comprehensive and consistent regional and national environmental laws are necessary to protect groundwater and shared waterbodies from pollution. This need is especially critical for waterbodies that already have large desalination plants installed or planned, such as the Gulf. For these necessary measures to be effective, it is important for countries to jointly plan and implement them. Joint studies and continuous monitoring should also be undertaken to better understand the adverse impacts of brine surface water disposal on marine ecosystems and inland disposal on groundwater aquifers. NExT sTEps MENA will reap three major benefits from coupling desalination with RE sources, particularly with the region's virtually unlimited solar irradiance: 1. A sustainable water supply 2. An energy-secure water sector 3. Environmental sustainability. However, to make these sources more competitive, actions must be taken today to encourage investments in RE technologies and improvements in desalination efficiency. All MENA countries have set policy targets or created supportive renewable energy policies. Nevertheless, concrete commitments that drive action on the ground are still missing. More work is needed to prepare bankable RE projects and coupled RE-desalination projects in MENA. Similarly, regional initiatives such as MENA CSP and DESERTEC should proceed with implementation. EU countries should make RE-based energy from MENA economically attractive and, in terms of exporting RE to EU countries, procedurally simple and easy. Equally important are the efforts that developed countries need to make to develop new technologies and/or support production of | 36 | Desalination & Water Reuse | February-March 2013 promising technologies at a scale to bring down the cost of RE. For example, the role that the government of Germany has played over the last few years to significantly bring down the cost of PV is commendable. Due to Germany's adoption of a preferential feed-in-tariff policy for PV-based RE sources, significant improvements in PV technology and cost saving have been achieved. These great achievements have helped not only Germany but also other countries to access PVbased RE energy sources. Similar initiatives could be supported by other developed countries that have comparative advantage in terms of technology and resources, including institutional and human capacity, to achieve better results for the common good. desalination/renewable Energy workshop Readers wishing to get more information about the dissemination workshop being organised by the World Bank around this report should contact: Bekele Debele, Senior Water Resources Specialist Middle East and North Africa Region The World Bank 1818 H St NW, Washington, DC 20433, Mail Stop J6-601 Tel: +1 202 458 8891; Fax: +1 202 522-0207; Email: bdebele09@ worldbank.org; Skype: bdebele References Fichtner (Fichtner GmbH & Co. KG) and DLR (Deutsches Zentrum für Luftund Raumfahrt e.V.). 2011. MENA Regional Water Outlook, Part II, Desalination Using Renewable Energy, Task 1–Desalination Potential; Task 2–Energy Requirements; Task 3–Concentrate Management. Final Report, commissioned by the World Bank, Stuttgart: Fichtner and DLR. http://www.dlr.de/tt/Portaldata/41/ Resources/dokumente/institut/system/ projects/MENA_REGIONAL_WATER_ OUTLOOK.pdf. F Trieb, H Müller-Steinhagen and J Kern. 2011. "Financing Concentrating Solar Power in the Middle East and North Africa: Subsidy or Investment?"Energy Policy 39: 307–17. World Bank. 2009. Clean Technology Funds Investment Plan for Concentrated Solar Power in the Middle East and North Africa Region. Washington, DC: Inter-Sessional Meeting of the Clean Technology Fund Trust Fund Committee, World Bank.