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UTILITY WEEK | 8TH - 14TH SEPTEMBER 2017 | 17 Policy & Regulation body is hoping there will be a clear steer from the emissions reduction plan when it is published." 5) The EV rollout will require a smart and flexible solution The mass rollout of EVs will have a huge effect on the electricity system of the future. If the take-up of EVs is not properly man- aged, there is a danger that the grid could became overloaded and not able to cope with the shiing demand patterns. Therefore, the industry must come up with a smart and flexible solution. One such resolution on the table is the rollout of sys- tems that incentivise EV charging at certain times of day. National Grid describes smart charging as "some kind of tariff-based sys- tem", which can shi EV owners away from charging at peak times – whether through conscious action and behaviour change or via automated services which manage charg- ing on their behalf. Energy Networks Association tells Utility Week that smart charging is a "significant enabler" to maximising the use of EVs, and accommodating the decarbonisation of the UK's transport system. The group says it is "essential" that electricity networks have visibility of the location, availability and dynamic usage of charging infrastructure if EVs are to be supported without compro- mising the reliability of energy supplies. It also calls for new commercial standards to be developed to allow for safe, secure, and interoperable smart charging to be realised. "Assertions that UK demand could increase by 50 per cent have been bandied around in the media" Paul Massara, chief executive, North Star Solar "There is a lot of consensus around what the world will look like. The interesting issue is how we get there." Simon Skillings, senior associate, E3G 18GW amount EVs could add to peak demand by 2050 60GW current peak demand £2.2bn cost (by 2050) to reinforce the network to accommodate EVs 2040 Year by which government has pledged to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel engine vehicles KEY NUMBERS "EVs could drive large increases in peak demand if we continue to see the sharp uptake past the 2030s." National Grid, Future Energy Scenarios ANNUAL DEMAND FROM EVs UNDER VARIOUS SCENARIOS Source: National Grid 50 45 50 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 EV annual demand (TWh) 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2015 2030 2045 2050 Two Degrees Slow Progression Steady State Consumer Power 2015 2030 2045 2050 2015 2030 2045 2050 2015 2030 2045 2050 Two Degrees Slow Progression Steady State Consumer power Two Degrees Slow Progression Steady State Consumer power Slower rate of increase as EVs replace the less efficient hybrid EVs Fewer EVs than in Two Degrees but larger and more energy demanding All cars sold are EVs post-2014 THE GROWTH OF EVs Source: National Grid 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Installed capacity, GW EV Hybrid EV Non-EVs