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UTILITY WEEK | 23RD - 29TH JUNE 2017 | 11 Policy & Regulation "The energy sector's relationship with Europe is changing regardless" David Smith, chief executive, ENA "It's independence versus the economic gains of co-operation." Michael Grubb, professor of international energy and climate change policy, University College London "Anybody who says they know exactly what's going to happen in the coming days, weeks and months is kidding because nobody knows what is going to happen." Mike Foster, chief executive, Energy and Utilities Alliance Policy & Regulation "Putting jobs and the economy first might win the day. It gives those who are more anti-Brexit more leverage," says former Con- servative MP turned energy consultant Laura Sandys. "The DUP gives so Brexiteers a bit more ammunition," says Richard Black, director of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU). "There will be the mother of all bat- tles between different visions of Brexit in the Conservative party." Chancellor Phillip Hammond's comments last week that the UK will take a "pragmatic" approach to the Brexit negotiations offered a hint of the jockeying for position taking place behind the scenes in government. "Events have certainly improved the chance of so Brexit," says Tim Yeo, the Con- servative former chairman of the energy and climate change select committee. "If May had got a bigger majority, she would have gone for a very hard Brexit. Now she is clearly constrained by her colleagues and there's no majority for a hard Brexit. The fact that The- resa May has to run a more collegiate admin- istration means that other views, including the Treasury's, will be heard more." "The weakening of Theresa May's posi- tion means that anybody from business who wants to make a case has a better chance of making it," says Black. May's weakened position following the general election, further undermined by the PM's plunging personal ratings, also means she is worse placed to pursue her pet project of removing the UK from the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (ECJ). This could mean a watering down of the government's plans to withdraw from ECJ, which arbitrates on disputes involving the EU and its sister bodies like Euratom. Accepting the continued jurisdiction of the ECJ would make it much easier for the UK to remain part of Euratom, says Yeo, who now chairs industry body New Nuclear Watch Europe. "Given that Euratom is a specific legal entity, so Brexit means remaining part of Euratom is a stronger possibility, which would avoid that huge disruption to the nuclear industry," he says. And accepting a dispute resolution mech- anism, whether in the form of the ECJ or another body, increases the scope for other forms of continued participation in EU energy arrangements, says Chatham House's Frog- gatt. "If an international arbitration body can be agreed, it opens the door to more specific discussions over the UK remaining fully inte- grated in the IEM," he says. However, Yeo cautions that Tory MPs remain under pressure from local activists to pursue a hard Brexit. And the lack of a stable majority for the Conservatives in the Commons means hard Brexiteers as well as so Brexiteers will be tempted to flex their parliamentary muscles. Hassan, who is leading his firm's Brexit committee, sees increased uncertainty as the main upshot from the general election. The need to build a consensus in the Com- mons means the UK will be less able to strike a tough pose when negotiating with the EU, he says. Parliament's hung nature also means it will be harder to push through the vast quantity of legislation required to extricate the UK from its relationship with the EU, and it will reduce the chances that the govern- ment will be able to present a final deal to parliament on a "take it or leave it" basis. Hassan says: "The biggest problem last week poses is increased uncertainty, and it delays the point when we might get more detail. People won't be in a position to reach decisions quickly on complex mat- ters because they don't feel they [the gov- ernment] have a strong enough mandate to push things through." The year since the EU referendum has been a bumpy ride but could merely be a curtain raiser for the instability to come. What they said then… 30 March 2019: UK ceases to be a member of the European Union • 8 June 2017: General election • 13 June 2017: New minority govern- ment formed • 19 June 2017: Brexit negotiations begin 2017 2018 2019 29 March 2017: Article 50 triggered starting the formal EU exit process 19 April 2017: snap general election called