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Operations & Assets ECO MEASURES INSTALLED UK EMISSIONS HISTORY RENEWABLES' SHARE OF GENERATION RENEWABLE GENERATION UTILITY WEEK | 15TH - 21ST JULY 2016 | 21 years there was an annual increase of just 2.5TWh. From its current level of 14.5TWh, renew- able transport would have to rise by 24TWh – an increase of 6TWh a year. There has been an annual increase of just 1TWh over the past four years. As National Grid cautions, "the pace of change would need to increase significantly". Its findings chime with those of the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), in its recent annual progress report. It said the country had relied heavily on the power sector to meet emissions targets – a phenom- enon that can only continue for so long. In the power sector, National Grid says there is a trend in all four scenarios towards more distributed generation: "[The] down- ward shi in the size of generation and the tendency to decentralise are important char- acteristics of all four of our scenarios, albeit to differing timescales and extents." This trend is most pronounced in the Consumer Power scenario. It sees 89GW of generation connected at the local level by 2040, "making up 49 per cent of total gen- eration capacity and providing 40 per cent of generation output". Generation is also predicted to diver- sify across all four scenarios. Much of this generation will come from renewables, and National Grid says a regional divergence may well emerge, with large amounts of solar generation installed in the south west and more onshore wind and hydro in Scotland. A big question mark remains over what part gas will play in the UK's future energy system. Although consumption is expected to fall in all four scenarios, the predictions of quite how much gas will be consumed annu- ally by 2040 are unclear, ranging from 600 to 800TWh. By contrast, predictions for elec- tricity demand range from 330 to 380TWh. Where Britain will end up depends on a number of further questions: to what extent will heating be electrified with heat pumps; how much can consumption be reduced with energy-efficiency measures and district heat- ing; and how much gas will be consumed for power generation? Since the government announced plans to replace the Energy Company Obliga- tion (Eco), details of the new scheme have remained sparse. This coincided with a drop in energy-efficiency installations from a high of 97,946 in March 2014 to only 31,748 in September last year. There remain con- cerns and questions about the replacement scheme's ability to deliver at the same level as Eco. Former shadow energy minister Alan Whitehead says the general target of 200,000 homes treated per year until 2021 "represents roughly a 40 per cent fall on what was Eco expenditure previously". Energy UK chief executive Lawrence Slade echoed these concerns, and Jim Watson of the UK Energy Research Centre criticised the "big gap in energy policy", demanding: "Whoever ends up in charge aer the current uncertainty, that should be at the top of their agenda." Under National Grid's Gone Green sce- nario, 18TWh of energy is saved through energy-efficiency measures between now and 2040. Under No Progression, less than half of that is saved. The answers to other questions are similarly varied. Targets are missed even in the most opti- mistic of green scenarios. Something signifi- cant, and unforeseen, has to change to get the UK back on track. Wind 12.5% Offshore 5.6% Onshore 6.9% 0% 25 20 15 10 Generation (TWh) 5 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q1 Q1 2013 2013 1990 2010 Annual UK emissions (MtCO2e) Number of measures installed 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 0 0 50 100 0 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Source: Decc Source: Decc Source: Decc Source: National Grid 150 200 250 300 5% 10% 15% 8.9% 2.2% 1.4% Hydro Bioenergy Solar PV Bioenergy Hydro Onshore wind Offshore wind Electricity Solar PV Heat Shoreline wave/tidal Transport Other measures (total: 289,943) Cavity wall insulation (total: 660,028) Boiler installations (total: 389,954) Loft insulations (total: 454,219)