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Operations & Assets ELECTRICITY ANNUAL DEMAND GAS ANNUAL DEMAND 20 | 15TH - 21ST JULY 2016 | UTILITY WEEK Analysis B ritain is going to miss its renewables and carbon reduction targets. That was the admission from National Grid in its latest Future Energy Scenarios report. The shortfall even took into account the eco- nomic freedoms and/or hardships the nation faces as a result of the vote to leave the Euro- pean Union. The power sector received a positive review in the climate change school report from National Grid, but the same cannot be said for the heat and transport sectors, which are dragging their heels. National Grid set out four future energy scenarios (see box): 'Gone Green', 'Consumer Power', 'Slow Progression' and 'No Progres- sion'. Whichever you choose, it warned, Brit- ain is falling behind on its climate targets. In all but Gone Green the UK is off course to meet its legally binding commitment set out in the Climate Change Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80 per cent on 1990 levels by 2050. The report said "action needs to be taken this decade" to meet it. Worse still, none of these scenarios meets the UK's target to produce 15 per cent of all of its energy from renewable sources by 2020. The earliest that is likely to happen is in 2022. The power sector is pulling its weight in the drive to go green and cut carbon emis- sions. Renewables' share of the electricity generation mix has continued to grow, reach- ing 25.1 per cent in 2016 Q1, up 2.3 percentage points on the share in 2015 Q1, mostly reflect- ing increased capacity. The decarbonisation agenda is being dragged back by slow pro- gress in the heating and transport sectors. To meet the 2020 target, renewable heat would have to grow from 35 to 95TWh – an annual increase of 15TWh. Over the past four Four paths to the future Even the most optimistic forecasts predict that Britain is going to miss its renewables and carbon reduction targets. Something has to change to get us back on track, says Tom Grimwood. Consumer Power Consumer Power is a market-driven world with limited government intervention. Prosperity allows for high investment and innovation. New technologies are prevalent and focus on the desires of consumers over and above reducing greenhouse gas emissions. No Progression No Progression is a world where 'business as usual' activities prevail. Society is focused on the short term, concentrating on affordability above green ambition. Traditional sources of gas and electricity continue to dominate, with little innovation altering the way in which energy is used. Slow Progression Slow Progression is a world where economic conditions limit society's ability to transition quickly to a renewable, low-carbon world. Choices for residential consumers and businesses are restricted, yet a range of new technologies and policies develop. This results in some progress towards decarbonisation. Gone Green Gone Green is a world where policy interventions and innovation are both ambitious and effective in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The focus on long-term environmental goals, prosperity and advanced European harmonisation ensure that the 2050 carbon reduction target is achieved. Green ambition + + - - Prosperity 2005 2005 2010 2010 2015 2015 2020 2020 2025 2025 2030 2030 2035 2035 2040 2040 Annual demand (TWh) Annual demand (TWh) 250 Source: National Grid Source: National Grid Source: National Grid 250 300 500 750 350 400 1,000 1,250 Historic Consumer Power Gone Green No Progression Slow Progression Historic Consumer Power Gone Green No Progression Slow Progression