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The Topic: Resilience RESILIENCE THE TOPIC 16 | 12TH - 18TH FEBRUARY 2016 | UTILITY WEEK T he UK faces a stark elec- tricity supply gap by the middle of the next decade. The closure of coal-fired power stations, the retirement of the ageing nuclear fleet and a grow- ing demand for electricity will leave the country facing a supply shortage of up to 55 per cent, according to the Institution of Mechanical Engineers (IMechE). Jenifer Baxter, head of energy and environment at IMechE, says the shortfall is expected because "there are insufficient incentives for companies to invest in any sort of electricity infrastructure". The warning comes aer National Grid last summer predicted a de-rated electricity capacity margin of 5.1 per cent for this winter, the tightest since a 4 per cent margin in winter HOW DSR CAN IMPROVE ENERGY RESILIENCE Associate professor in energy economics and policy at Reading University, Dr Jacopo Torriti, says DSR can play a "key role in improving energy resilience" in two main ways: l "In emergency situations, DSR gives the grid the chance to stabilise… and lowers the risks of rolling blackouts by allowing suppliers and grid operators to reduce stress on the grid by having businesses lower their electricity demand." l "DSR can also help to fill demand troughs by switching appropriate loads when there is plenty of generation from renewables and demand is low." CO-OPERATION Utility services can no long- er rely on discrete networks – they are often dependent on each other, so cross- sector planning is essential The UK Regulators' Network (UKRN) has pulled together its second report looking at cross-sector resilience. It addresses the issues that may occur during a major inci- dent, and increasing cross-sector depend- ence – such as that between the telecoms sector and the energy industry. UKRN has also created a cross regulator emergency plan, which sets out a prear- ranged communications process to be used in the event of major incident that affects multiple infrastructure sectors. It says "an important part of maximising resilience is planning the response to disruptive inci- dents in advance" and calls for joint exercise co-ordination. When emergency plans within a sector are being stress-tested, it says, stakeholders from other sectors should also be involved. It cites a recent flood exercise led by the water sector that gave energy and telecoms compa- nies the opportunity to participate, enabling them to judge how the scenario would affect their operations. Case study: The resilience of telecoms to power interruptions The traditional fixed voice service in the telecoms sector is in long-term decline, with calls on the network falling 13 per cent dur- ing 2014. More people are using mobile technol- ogy, while those still using landlines oen use cordless handsets which rely on a localised power source, rather than from the telephone line as old, corded phones do. This means that in the event of a power cut, while the phone line itself may be functional, many people would be unable to make calls. The development of the superfast broad- band network is also less resilient to power cuts because it requires equipment installed in 20 times as many sites as BT's telephony network, which is able to house back-up generators at many of its exchange sites. Mobile transmitters could also suffer, and many base station sites do not have signifi- cant back-up generation, which could result in the service being lost until either portable generation supplies are installed on site or mains power is restored. This means that "even small power inter- ruptions can have a knock-on impact on telecoms services and severe disruption can occur in some cases", says UKRN. Generation evolution With ageing plant being retired, National Grid is holding capacity auctions to close the gap, but will it be enough to stave off blackouts? CAPACITY MARKET KEY NUMBERS £27.50kW/year clearing price 1,110.028MW total capacity entering the auction 802.710MW capacity 'bought' £22m max cost of capacity procured 2005/06, following a spate of power station closures. National Grid has taken "sensible precautions" to buy in extra services to help ensure the system remains resilient to win- ter demand, including demand side response (DSR). The capacity auctions held by National Grid, which concluded at the end of January, were designed to encourage DSR take-up, as well as procuring other generation sources to help address the supply gap. A total of 802MW of capacity was bought in the auctions, with 475MW being DSR measures, set to be delivered for next winter. This marks the start of a shi towards increasing reliance on DSR, and National Grid head of commercial operations Duncan Burt told Utility Week in June 2015 it was preparing to revolu- tionise how it maintained secure supply by relying on demand- side measures for "well over 50 per cent of the time" by 2030. With the pressures of grow- ing demand and diminishing supply, the move to use of DSR to balance the electricity system should help create a more resil- ient network. SJ Existing generating CMU New-build generating CMU Unproven DSR CMU Source: National Grid Breakdown of awarded capacity by CMU type 803MW 13MW 315MW 475MW