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T he WEF Global Risk Report 2015 shows that fears about the likeli- hood and impact of a major failure of critical infrastructure have risen since the previous report in 2014. The main geographic source of this ris- ing concern is North America, which has been hit by a succession of extreme weather events in recent years. Interestingly, how- ever, while these physical threats are a cause for worry, fears about failure of critical infra- structure in the region are closely coupled with fear of cyber attacks. In the UK, the resilience of critical infra- structure has recently come under scrutiny. The electricity system has been subject to a House of Lords resilience inquiry and the Royal Academy of Engineering last year pub- lished a report that sought to quantify the economic impact that large-scale power out- ages might have. Meanwhile, in the water sector, Ofwat has announced the creation of a resilience working group, chaired by Waterwise man- aging director Jacob Tompkins. The working group should help Ofwat fulfil its obligations under the 2014 Water Act to safeguard long- term resilience in the water system. Tompkins is speaking on day three: www.utilityweek-keynote.com The global outlook UtilityWeek Resilience 16 | 20TH - 26TH MARCH 2015 | UTILITY WEEK Fear of failure Threats to the integrity of your net- work or service can come from many different directions. "Climate change demands urgent action. We have started on the road and we are being joined by much of the rest of the world… but the UK is still not on track to cut emissions by 80 per cent." Lord Deben, chairman, committee on climate change, is speaking at the Utility Week Live keynote conference T he combination of extreme weather events and the influx of intermittent renewable generation on to the grid is keeping grid operators around the world working overtime. Increasing renewables requires new understanding of the dynamics of demand and intermittency – beyond the usual issues that cloudy and windless days cause. It will be interesting to see how Europe's electricity systems cope with this month's solar eclipse (20 March) now that it relies on solar for 10.5 per cent of renewable generation. The US polar vortex in January last year, which brought the coldest temperatures experienced in two decades, showed the impact that demand response programmes can have in supporting grid resilience. When the vortex hit, rather than turning on peak generation, demand response programmes were activated that reduced demand. By managing demand, the lights stayed on. Last summer, having had previous suc- cess using behavioural science with peak time programmes to manage demand, Opower trialled a new concept, behavioural demand response (BDR) – in the US, with significant results. By leveraging the existing advanced metering infrastructure and delivering per- sonalised communications, at the right time, and via the right channel, to individual cus- tomers, peak demand was reduced by 5 per cent. Customers were motivated to reduce usage during times of peak power demand without any price incentives. Currently, demand response in the UK focuses solely on business customers. But Opower's BDR programme shows that residential consumers are a major untapped energy source. There is no reason the UK cannot use them to ensure a stable grid, at lower cost, both in emergency and day-to- day scenarios. John Webster, vice president, strategy and marketing, Opower Viewpoint A high risk environment O ver the past decade, awareness has grown regarding the threats posed by environmental change to social, polit- ical and economic security. As the Global Risks Perception Survey 2014 highlights, three of the top ten risks in terms of impact over the next ten years are environmental risks: water crises and failure of climate- change adaptation as well as biodiversity loss. The WEF advises four approaches to strengthen resilience in the face of environ- mental risk: 1. There needs to be organisational awareness of the importance of building resilience into core business processes rather than seeing it as part of a company's corpo- rate social responsibility. Resilience is o en overlooked and under-appreciated. Prepar- edness results from perception and antici- pation. Unless a global risk is perceived to be imminently threatening an organisation, it is internally oen difficult to get the nec- essary buy-in to set aside funds to invest in resilience. 2. What is true on a higher cross-sector, cross-organisation partnership level also holds true at an organisational level. Build- ing trust internally and communicating clearly on priorities is important – agile pro- cesses will help a company to respond in the wake of a crisis. 3. There is untapped value in setting up a space for cross-organisational learn- ing. Through our work, we have had many requests from companies that would like to learn from their peers. 4. The private sector can seek a more proactive role. One of the consistent key mes- sages that has come out of the Global Risks report series over the years is the need for public-private collaboration, because many global risks transcend spheres of influence. The private sector can seek collaboration with government and start a discussion on what collaboration in this area could look like. Caroline Galvan is a World Economic Forum economist and part of the global risks team for the 2015 report ● Water crisis Global water requirements are projected to be pushed beyond sustainable water supplies by 40% by 2030. "Energy consumers are an untapped source of resilience"