UtilitY WEEK | 11th - 17th April 2014 |
19
Policy & Regulation
To avert the risk of blackouts mid-decade, National Grid is considering payments to generators to sit out of the market but be available for emergencies: the supplemental balancing reserve. This could
mean keeping on gas plant that would otherwise close or bringing back mothballed plant. The owners of 7GW of currently available plant and 2GW of mothballed plant have expressed an interest. The latter
may include SSE's 735MW Keadby plant (pictured), which was deeply mothballed (that is, it will take a year to recommission) in 2012.
There is also a demand-side balancing reserve on the cards. In this, major energy users would agree to cut demand between 4 and 8pm in winter as required. Potential participants have indicated
between 850MW and 1GW of capacity could be freed up in this way.
the capacity squeeze
Key
Decc base case (no
capacity market)
Decc base case with a
capacity market
Ofgem Reference
Scenario
Generation mix
In January 2014, GB electricity generation came from:
Coal 40%
Gas 21%
Nuclear 20%
Wind 9%
Hydro 2%
Pumped storage 1%
Imports 5% from French interconnector; 2% from the Dutch
Source: BM Reports via Gridwatch
Key
National Grid's Gone
Green 2013 scenario
Reference scenario 2013
Reference scenario 2012
Low supply sensitivity
High demand sensitivity
Loss of load expectation
Loss
of
load
expecation
(hours/year)
10
8
6
4
2
0
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18 2018/19
Capacity
margin
(%)
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
2016/17
2017/18 2018/19
Decc and Ofgem estimates
of de-rated margins
Coal 38%
Nuclear 19%
CCGT 21%
Wind 11%
French interconnector 5%
Dutch interconnector 2%
Hydro 1%
Pumped
storage 2%
