Utility Week

UTILITY WEEK | 4TH - 10TH MAY 2018 | 15 Policy & Regulation Analysis A n emissions-free world by the end of this century was the bold target agreed at the Paris climate change summit. And on 17 April, energy and climate change minister Claire Perry announced that the UK would be swinging behind this objective by asking the Committee on Cli- mate Change (CCC) for advice on how the UK's greenhouse gas cuts targets should be strengthened in the light of the 2015 agree- ment. The UK, with 194 other countries, com- mitted to cutting carbon emissions to zero during the second half of this century in order to help stem increases in global temperatures. The CCC will be asked to begin its work later this year when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has deliv- ered its own report showing the impact of rising temperatures and the steps that can be taken to mitigate them. New Zealand and Sweden have already signed up to the net zero emissions goal, and the European Commission has begun a similar exercise to that being undertaken in the UK. Nevertheless, Perry's move puts the UK near the front of queue in terms of action to tackle rising emissions. Dr Jonathan Marshall, energy analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), says: "It's a step in the right direction. As the first nation to industrialise and which until recently had fairly polluting electricity systems and industry, we have started to take a lead." Feasible target? But is the net zero target feasible or just empty sloganeering? The government's request aligns with the CCC's own advice. In its assessment of the Clean Growth Strategy, published in January, the CCC recommended that it should provide advice on the implications of the Paris agree- ment for the UK's long-term emissions target. Perry's announcement also follows a report at the end of March from the London School of Economics' Grantham Research Institute, which concludes that the govern- ment needs to go further than the targets set out in the Climate Change Act, which only applies until 2050. It says a "net zero" target, which goes beyond the 80 per cent cut enshrined in the 2008 act, is required in order to prevent worldwide temperatures rising 2°C above pre-industrial levels – the critical level identified in the Paris agreement. Professor Sam Fankhauser, lead author of the Grantham report, expects it will take about a year for both the CCC to conduct its review and for the government to respond. This would put the UK on track to deliver a net zero emissions plan by the end of 2020. "That's when we need it because then we will need to start thinking about the sixth carbon budget [covering the period from 2032 to 2038]," he says. Chaitanya Kumar, senior policy adviser at Green Alliance, agrees: "The CCC needs to be advised on the sixth carbon budget by the end of 2020." Despite the o cited urgency of action to tackle climate change, Fankhauser believes Perry's approach is the right one. Waiting for the IPCC's conclusions will give UK policy- makers a better handle on what needs to be done: "It's not just that she wants a net zero target but that she wants the right process." The UK has successfully driven down the amount of carbon created by electricity gen- eration, which now ranks behind transport as a contributor to carbon emissions. Fankhauser says the power sector power should be zero carbon by the second half of the century thanks to a combination of cheap renewables and improved battery storage. Some thorny political issues will need to be addressed though, Energy UK chief execu- tive Lawrence Slade says: "The energy sector has made great strides in generating cleaner, greener electricity at ever-falling costs and is committed to finishing the job. But if we are to go further and faster it will be vital to continue those programmes which have successfully delivered change, including facilitating a route to market for the lowest cost renewables." The next challenge for generation, he says, is whether it can actually take carbon out of the atmosphere through a combina- tion of burning sustainably sourced biomass and carbon capture and storage plants. Transport challenge Slade says the government needs to place continued emphasis on the decarbonisa- tion of transport – now the biggest contribu- tor to carbon emissions – and make energy efficiency and the decarbonisation of heat a national infrastructure priority. Kumar suggests the government could make a start on the transport problem by rolling out UK-wide the 2030 ban on sales of internal combustion engine cars proposed in the dra London environment plan. And technical solutions, albeit costly ones, exist for decarbonising heat, says Fankhauser: "Heating is more a political and economic rather than a technical problem because you could mandate that everybody must have a heat pump. It would be hugely costly and everyone would be upset, but we could be net zero in heat." But in many other areas it is hard to even see feasible technological solutions, admits Fankhauser, namechecking aviation, agriculture and certain parts of industry. But it's important to start thinking about these problems now. "If we know we need net zero 60 years from now, the technologies don't exist. We have to take action now so that technologies are there when we need them." The ECIU's Marshall agrees: "We need to get policies working so we will have policies to set us up to achieve the tougher long-term goals." One of the key questions facing the CCC will be whether the UK should seek to buy carbon offsets from places that may find it easier to decarbonise. The UK is part of the EU's Emissions Trad- ing System, the world's biggest scheme for trading greenhouse gas emissions allowances from power stations and industrial plants. But it is due to quit the ETS alongside its depar- ture from the EU. If this happens, the UK will lose an important tool for achieving net zero emissions, warns Kumar: "If you are not tied into the ETS you lose important flexibility." It may not have figured much in the Brexit debate, but withdrawal from the EU could make the tough task of meeting the Paris accord even harder. Counting down to zero The government has said it will review its targets to meet its zero emissions goal, but to what extent should they be strengthened? And how will the goal be met? David Blackman reports.

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