Utility Week

UTILITY WEEK | 27TH APRIL - 3RD MAY 2018 | 21 Operations & Assets CROWD-SOURCED SOLUTIONS TO GENOME SEQUENCING PROBLEM "Humans don't play Go that way… We can't see that many moves ahead with any clarity." Go isn't the only game where comput- ers are achieving feats not long ago thought virtually impossible. In August, a bot devel- oped by Elon Musk's company Open AI beat some of the world's best players in the online video game Dota 2 – again employing uncon- ventional strategies that le its opponents bewildered. McAfee said their success is proof that computers can now be instilled with excel- lent judgement. "That does not mean that all of our brains are useless – that human beings have no value anymore," he assured the audience. "I don't believe that for a second. "But we had better take into account the evidence about geeks versus hippos and realise that things like we see in the game of Go, we're going to see happening more and more in other areas." The core versus the crowd One way in which humans can still excel, according to McAfee, is by harnessing the power of the crowd. This is another area in which technology has been transforma- tional. The internet has enabled collabora- tion and competition between people from all over the globe and all walks of life who might never have otherwise crossed paths. McAfee said it is a common refrain that companies should place a lot of emphasis on strengthening their core businesses – the things they supposedly do best – in order to maintain an advantage over outsiders. He warned, however, that the crowd, has repeatedly shown its ability to outperform the core. He gave the example of a team of researchers at Harvard Medical School who were striving to find the fastest and most accurate way to sequence a human genome. The best solution so far had been created by National Institute of Health, which had got the process down to around three hours with an accuracy of 72 per cent. The Harvard researchers had a crack at the problem themselves, spending a full year and $120,000 to bring the time down to around one hour with an accuracy of 77 per cent. Together theses represented the best efforts of the core of the medical establishment. They then launched a two-week com- petition on an online forum to see if the crowd could do better. The challenge was presented in the form of a mathematical problem. Anyone was free to enter, no mat- ter what their qualifications or background. Many of the solutions they received were both faster and more accu- rate, with the best coming in at just 16 seconds with an accuracy of 80 per cent. All of these solu- tions were submitted by complete outsid- ers to the fields of medicine and genetics. And this exponential leap was achieved with a meagre prize pot of just $6,000. "I'm pretty sure that the National Insti- tute of Health in the United States spends more than $6,000 per week on paperclips," joked McAfee. McAfee said there are countless other examples of where the crowd has outshone the core: "As we rewrite the playbook, we should keep in mind that over and over again the crowd has shown it is surprisingly wise." Similarities versus differences McAfee had one final lesson for the utilities sector – that their industry has more similar- ities with others than it may initially appear. Seemingly disparate sectors such as tel- ecommunications, transportation and hos- pitality have all been transformed in recent years by the shi to business models based on platforms. Apple did it for mobile phones. Uber did it for taxis. A team of students came to a friend of his one day to pitch their idea for a new busi- ness. "We want to let you sleep in a stran- ger's guest bedroom half way around the world," they said. McAfee said he would have been scepti- cal of such a proposal: "Why would I have enough trust to go sleep in a stranger's unin- spected guest bedroom half way around the world? Why would they trust me, somebody they know nothing about, to be a good guest in their home? "The good news is those entrepreneurs did not come to me," he added. By using a few bits of information – Facebook profiles, ratings and pictures – they were able to over- come this trust barrier. Hence, the success of their business – Airbnb. He continued: "I think in more and more cases it's the structure of the platform that's going to determine successful businesses, even more than the structure of the industry. Because in very dis- similar industries, we see the same thing happen over and over." The second machine age has arrived and brought with it a new set of rules. Those who continue to oper- ate by the old play- book will not live to see the third. Andrew McAfee Accuracy Time (seconds 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Source: Karim R Lakhani et al, Harvard Business School NIH solution Harvard Medical School solution Crowd-sourced solutions

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