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24 | 1ST - 7TH SEPTEMBER 2017 | UTILITY WEEK Operations & Assets Analysis peak heat issue and the need to rely on the gas networks and the gas infrastructure for this peak heat load, this is a way of main- taining their existing market position." In reality, Lowes says, the electrification of heat would be "a hell of a lot less diffi- cult than it's being portrayed by incumbent companies." Here's a summary of his argument: • The peak heat demand regularly outlined by those who support a continued role for gas in the future is misleading. Gas adher- ents say that accommodating peaks in non- industrial gas demand that can top out at nearly 380GW would require prohibitively large investment in new electricity genera- tion and grid reinforcements (see graph). • Lowes says higher temperatures result- ing from climate change will reduce both peak and overall heat requirements, as will energy efficiency measures, which could cut demand by as much as 30 to 40 per cent. • The energy policy researcher also insists N o one likes to be branded obsolete. We will all go to great lengths to jus- tify our continued existence, and this instinct for self-preservation should be recog- nised as the driving force behind arguments for the decarbonisation of the gas grid, says Exeter Energy Policy Group's Richard Lowes. Lowes, an energy researcher kicked up a dust last month when he told Utility Week that gas networks have been "exaggerating" the difficulties attached to decarbonising the energy system, predominantly via the use of green electricity. For some years now, gas networks and other system incumbents have argued that peak heat demand makes such an approach unviable. A more nuanced "whole system" plan for decarbonisation should be adopted, including a role for low carbon gas in the provision of heat (and transport) fuels, say bodies such as Energy Networks Association (see David Smith's column, right). But Lowes insists: "By promoting this demand will be further flattened out by smart appliances and storage, particularly given that both electric heat pump and dis- trict heating solutions will typically involve some form of heat storage anyway. • Lowes adds that electric heat pumps pro- duce around two and half to three times as much heat energy as they consume in elec- tricity, meaning that the remaining challenge in meeting heat demand is more easily sur- mountable than it might initially appear. • Compared to a strategy for electrification, Lowes says that proposals for the decarboni- sation of domestic heat demand via low car- bon gasses, particularly hydrogen, are not robust. • Projects like H21, Northern Gas Networks' vision for creating a 100 per cent hydrogen grid in Leeds, would not help the UK meet its climate change targets under the Paris Agreement, because emissions linked to the hydrogen production process would prevent the delivery of a zero-carbon system. What's the point of gas? The received wisdom is that continued use of the gas network will be essential to meet peak heat demand, even if the rest of the system is electrified, but is this true? Utility Week looks at the arguments on both sides of the debate. This graph, titled 'Decarbonising Low Grade Heat For A Low Carbon Future', was produced by Robert Sansom in 2014 as part of his doctoral thesis for Imperial College London. It shows non- industrial heat demand reaching peaks of almost 380GW during some half-hour periods in 2010 and is commonly used at industry conferences and in policy positioning papers by those who argue that the electrification of domestic heat provision would be unmanageably expensive. According to Lowes, however, the graph has been misused. He insists that peak demand will look "radically different", with "significantly smaller" peaks by 2050 and that, therefore, electrifi- cation could play a dominant role in the decarbonisation of heat. 400 650 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Half-hourly demand (GW) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec