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UTILITY WEEK | 5TH - 11TH MAY 2017 | 17 Policy & Regulation Policy & Regulation majority, could scale back low-carbon energy commitments, like the CfD programme. "We've seen plenty of changes in policy that were unexpected over the past two or three years, and that's been in an environ- ment that reflects a consensus on low carbon ambitions," says Miller. "Post-election, that consensus may not matter so much. "CfD auctions this parliament? They have earmarked the budget and said they will run three, but there's nothing in law that says they have to. It's perfectly plausible for a new government to turn around and say 'bills are going up, we need to take pressure off con- sumers and we just have procured several gigawatts of offshore wind in this [current] auction, do we really need to do this?' "You can see plenty of scope for those things to happen, particularly if they get a whopping majority." Miller also predicts that offshore wind is "likely to be the winner" in the current round, with a strike price below £70. EY's head of energy and environmental finance, Ben Warren, tells Utility Week he also believes offshore wind "will come out as the clear winner" in the current bidding round, as a "consequence of the increasing competitiveness of the technology". "If that prediction is right, then the really interesting question will be how many [off- shore wind] projects get an award, because there's probably only enough budget for two sensible-sized schemes, and what price do they go for?" says Warren. However, associate fellow of the Bright Blue think-tank, Ben Caldecott, insists renewables are "popular among Conserva- tive voters". "The government needs to provide policy consistency and certainty to investors in the clean energy revolution to keep the cost of capital low and to keep attracting inward investment," he adds. "Of course, onshore wind should be located only where there is local support and there should be relentless pressure to phase out subsidies. These are sound Conservative principles, but we must not risk throwing out the baby with the bath water." The call for clarity, particularly around future CfD rounds is a pertinent one. One of the key areas highlighted by Energy UK's election manifesto, published last week, is a call for CfD allocation rounds on a rolling one-year basis. "Since the last general election, we've had this injection of uncertainty into things," says Energy UK chief executive Lawrence Slade. "We really do need to start working on a stable policy framework, going forward. What we are looking for is that clear guid- ance on what is on the horizon." The political parties have yet to publish their manifestoes for the election, so whether any will heed Energy UK's call remains to be seen. Either way, the renewables energy sec- tor will be waiting until the summer, when the winners of both the election and the first auction are named, for any clarity. T he snap general election has seen parliament dissolved until June, and the summer recess and the break for the party con- ference season which follows shortly aerwards will effectively see all government active cease until the autumn. Chief executive of the Renewable Energy Association (REA) Nina Skorupska, tells Utility Week this could have a devastating effect on the UK's low carbon and climate change ambitions. "It's definitely an interesting time," she says before highlighting more than half a dozen pieces of government legislation – as well as many more green and white papers the REA and the sector were expecting – which will be held up at least until October, or early 2018, as a result of the election. The lack of clarity caused by these delays, which obscure the UK's strategy for meeting the obligations of the fourth and fih carbon budgets, is unsettling for industry. "We've always said that the policies identified by the previ- ous [outgoing] government delivers on the necessary trajectory to 2020/21. Beyond that, there is nothing clear or anything people can hang their hat on to enable us to deliver the fourth budget," Skorup- ska sates, before adding, "the gap is only bigger for us to meet the fih budget". Skorupska says that with most of the activity from the govern- ment effectively paused until the autumn, the new pro- gramme of work the sector was waiting for – which she adds was due to be published over the next month or two – has been halted. However, despite the "maelstrom" of politics of recent years, Skorupska is not completely downbeat about the state of energy policy and the hope of the UK meeting its renewa- ble energy and climate change commitments. "We believe this is an opportunity that can see the new government recommit to key poli- cies and create a pathway, but there is an urgent need to upgrade policies." She tells Utility Week that the indus- try is making its own moves in the vacuum created by the lack of these upgraded policies. "We want to get on to deliver what's right for low carbon energy and climate change. We have to get on with it." However, one thing she makes very clear is that achiev- ing the goals the UK is legally bound to in the Climate Change Act would be made much easier by the big political parties, and the new government – whatever its makeup – publicly committing to renewable low carbon energy and the UK's climate change targets. Interview Renewables in limbo The renewables sector will have to wait for the new government to settle in before it will know how seriously the UK will continue to pursue low carbon goals.