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NETWORK / 39 / NOVEMBER 2016 supply-demand balancing, and demand-side response. There is also little mention of smart networks and the potential inte- gration or interaction between energy vectors or demands. The £20m National Centre for Energy Systems Integration (CESI), set up by the Engineer- ing and Physical Sciences Research Council and Siemens at Newcastle University, is tackling the big and diverse questions around the future of the UK energy system and how to achieve it, taking all the above factors into account. CESI's interdisciplinary, big data-driven methodology will embrace the whole energy systems approach and draw on existing high-level models, scenarios and research outputs from research and industrial communities. CESI will examine the ways in which supply, demand and infrastructure could co-evolve and develop system configura- tion trajectories out to 2050. The outputs from this research will provide vital validated evidence to inform investment decisions, recommend system design op- tions and identify the regula- tory frameworks needed for an energy future that must depart significantly from what has gone before if we are to achieve our goals. N Dr Sara Walker, associate director, Centre for Energy Systems Integration energy systems and long-term strategic vision and planning. The key challenge is how to develop wide-scale, probabilis- tic modelling and simulation of integrated energy systems with sufficient detail and sophistica- tion to enable robust planning and investment decisions. Much of the work done to date on scenarios for the UK energy sector by 2050, such as the UK Energy Research Centre's Energy 2050 project, the UK government's Carbon Plan 2011, and the Committee on Climate Change's carbon budgets, use the Markal modelling tool to address this challenge. The Markal model assumes "perfect foresight" to ensure that energy service demands are met in such a way as to achieve optimal cost or welfare. The 2050 scenarios presented by Energy 2050, Carbon Plan 2011 and the CCC's carbon budgets achieve the 80% emissions reduction target through energy demand reduction and de- carbonising electricity, which will have to deal with higher demand created by the electri- fication of heat and transport – there is also a role for hydrogen fuel cells. However, these high-level pictures say little about the potential for small-scale renewables connected to elec- tricity distribution networks, alternative uses of the gas grid, the potential for ther- mal and electrical storage in ity fuel mix might see around 40% from conventional and CCGT, 15% nuclear and 45% re- newables. That snapshot of the future isn't going to achieve the 80% target set by the Climate Change Act. New approach needed It is notoriously difficult to predict the future based on the past. The necessary decarboni- sation of the UK economy will require a paradigm shi™ in the planning and operation of the energy sector. Developments such as the ex- pansion of electricity generation from renewables and potential electrification of the heat and transport sectors are creating pressures that require a deeper understanding of integrated In the world of energy, in 1982 the UK generation, distri- bution and supply sectors were state-owned and Nigel Lawson – seen as a key architect of privatisation – was a year into his role as minister for energy. Despite the government making a commitment in 1979 to 15GW of new nuclear power, by the early 80s, political enthusiasm for the programme was waning. At the same time, coal mining in the UK was set on a course of rapid and truculent decline. The energy troubles of 1982 may feel a world away, but a look at final energy consump- tion by fuel for that year, compared with the most recent figures (for 2015) suggests less system change than you might imagine. Petrol is still the largest final energy consumption fuel type, followed by natural gas, and their market shares have changed very little. Delving a little deeper, the biggest changes have been in the electricity sector. The fuel mix for electricity generation has moved from a large majority of conventional fossil fuel ther- mal plant to a more balanced mix of conventional thermal, combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT), nuclear and renewables. Projecting forward, based on historical trends we might expect the UK energy fuel mix to be around 45% petroleum, 35% gas and 20% electricity in 2050. Projections for the UK electric- 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1982 2015 Source: BEIS (2016). Electricity generated and supplied. www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/540936/DUKES_5.3.xls l Conventional thermal and other l CCGT l Nuclear l Non-thermal renewables l Pumped storage 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1982 2015 Source: BEIS (2016). Energy consumption in the UK, July 2016 update. www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/541168/ECUK_ Tables_2016.xlsx l Town gas l Natural gas l Electricity l Coal l Coke and breeze l Other solid fuels l Coke oven gas l Heat sold l Bioenergy and water l Petroleum UK energy consumption by fuel UK fuel mix used for electricity generation SCENARIO PLANNING