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suggested functions and offers thoughts about where to start when implementing them. For power system stakeholders, all of these make good reading, but when it comes to moving forwards and effecting real change, the functionality matrix and the sequencing spreadsheet are arguably the most important SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE NETWORK / 32 / SEPTEMBER 2016 of the deliverables. They are complex documents based on extensive systemic analysis. They acknowledge the considerable difficulties involved in establishing route maps to develop functions and markets that are inextricably interdependent and give an inkling of the broad co-ordination and synchronisation that will be required across multiple fronts to realise 2030 energy objectives. Speaking with Network, Duncan Botting, director of Global Smart Transformation and a leading FPSA project contributor, asks: "Because all of the functions rely on each other in order to work as we expect and need them to, how do we know which functions to prioritise and which ones to start with?" Answering himself, he continues: "We don't. But we tried to identify the sequencing that would be required for particular scenario outcomes." These scenarios are set out in the FPSA project's function-sequencing spreadsheet and summarised in the chart below. They are extensions of National Grid's hypothetical "Gone Green" future, as described in its Future Energy Scenarios work and vary in the assumed level of incumbent industry buy-in to the process of system transformation. For example – the Power System Adaptation scenario assumes a passive approach to system change and therefore a slower timeline for the implementation of new functionality. The Customer and Community Empowerment scenarios, meanwhile, assume that a much more assertive force for change will come from outside the traditional areas of power system influence. In these scenarios, changes to functionality appear much sooner than expected, but the threat of uncontrolled system evolution that could create vulnerabilities – for operators and users – is raised. Each sequencing scenario is accompanied by a set of trigger points that Botting explains "are the issues which identify when certain functionality will be considered necessary". These early warning signals come with a built-in lead time for the implementation of new functionality. They should enable industry to prepare better and with greater flexibility for the rise of new technologies – rather than taking a reactive approach as Botting says has been the case with solar PV, the sudden expansion of which is now causing network operators major headaches. "Could we have seen that coming with a more analysis and awareness?" asks Botting. "I think we could." In addition to trigger points, the function- sequencing scenarios set out by the FPSA team are also linked to sets of "prerequisites" that must be in place to achieve the imagined outcomes. It's here that the FPSA project most obviously and frequently encountered the limitations of the terms of reference set out for it by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (Decc), which commissioned the project. These terms of reference forbade the team to stray beyond the technical requirements of the power system and into the realms of market regulation and governance. However, as Botting points out: "Place, time and context is everything… Functionality tends to be enabled not just by the technical requirements of that specific function but by the environment that it sits within." The project was commissioned by Decc in 2015 to identify the technical and operational requirements of a low-carbon, flexible power system out to 2030. The project team considered the whole energy system – from generation through transmission and distribution to retail and beyond the meter. Using a systems engineering methodology, the FPSA team identified 35 new or significantly extended functions that will be required to meet the power system objectives of 2030. These functions are driven by: The need for flexibility to meet changing but uncertain system requirements. The changing generation mix. Emerging price signals and incentives influencing demand and use. The appearance of new system participants. Increasingly active management of the networks. Rising need for new ways to recover from local outages. The need for co-ordination across energy vectors. Recognising these drivers and the need to implement new functionality, the FPSA project team recommends: Act now to align system architecture development with major policy commitments – such as the fifth carbon budget. Ensure there is an implementation framework for delivery of the required functionality. Deepen and extend functional analysis – incorporating governance perspectives and recognition of cross-vector dependencies. Develop a transition route map of least- regret actions. Extend analysis and identification of R&D and innovation requirements for delivery of the required functionality – align an innovation programme with the transition route map. Maintain the momentum created by the FPSA project by formalising cross-sector and inter-agency working. Develop allocation of accountability for the transition. The Future Power System Architecture project in brief Transformation scenario Concept Impact Power System Adaptation Power sector maintains business as usual, accommodating incremental development. The functions are adopted after the 'needed by' event, potentially causing operational issues, necessitating temporary ad hoc solutions, and delaying benefits gained from innovation. Power Sector Leadership Power sector provides leadership, engaging with more active consumers. Functions are adopted a little earlier, and generally pro-actively, meaning that more functions are implemented before the 'needed by' event. However, the delay in cross- system collaboration means there are still timing issues. Customer Empowerment Power sector becomes the facilitator, empowering commercial parties and consumers. Triggers are reached much sooner, and therefore functions implemented earlier. This enables benefits of innovation to be realised sooner, but indicates a period of very rapid change that will need careful management. Community Empowerment Power sector acts as a comprehensive facilitator, empowering communities and smart cities. Triggers are reached much sooner, and therefore functions implemented earlier. This enables benefits of innovation to be realised sooner, but indicates a period of very rapid change that will need careful management. Sequencing scenarios