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UTILITY WEEK | 8TH - 14TH JULY 2016 | 13 Policy & Regulation This week UK on track to miss green energy target National Grid warns that the target is on course to be missed in all four future energy scenarios The UK is on track to miss a tar- get to produce 15 per cent of all energy from renewables by 2020, National Grid has warned. If current trends continue, advances in decarbonisation of the power sector will be unable to make up for slow progress on heat and transport. The system operator made the prediction in the latest version of its annual Future Energy Scenarios report, which outlined four different potential scenarios for the future of the UK's energy sys- tem: 'Gone Green', 'Consumer Power', 'Slow Progression' and 'No Progression'. Britain has a legally binding target under the EU's Renewable Energy Directive to produce 15 per cent of all final energy consumption from renewable sources by 2020. In none of the four scenarios is the country pre- dicted to achieve the target. The earliest it is predicted to be met is in 2022 under the 'Gone Green' scenario. It wouldn't be met until 2029 under 'No Progression'. Meeting the overall target will require 34 per cent of power to be generated from renewable sources. They will need to produce 10 per cent of all energy used in both heat and transport. National Grid said the power sector is on course to make the required contribution, but said as things stand, heat and transport are not. Renewable heat will need to grow from 35TWh to 60TWh between now and 2020 – an annual increase of 12.5TWh. As there was an average annual increase of just 2.5TWh over the past four years "the pace of change would need to increase significantly". TG WATER Regulation among Brexit concerns The future of environmental regulation, EU-funded research and cross-border transactions in the supply chain are among the chief concerns of the water sector following the UK's vote to leave the European Union, sector representatives have told Utility Week's sister title WWT. Considerable investment is driven by EU directives and the Urban Wastewater Treatment Directive, Drinking Water Direc- tive and Water Framework Direc- tive have been among the key reg- ulatory drivers. While some EU rules and regulations have been transposed into national law, others apply on a direct basis. With the government in flux and negotiations set to take place over the terms of the UK's exit, there is no reason to expect a quick resolution, according to Water UK head of corporate affairs, Neil Dhot. "My view is that in those negotiations, the environment is going to be low down the list of things to sort out," he told WWT. ELECTRICITY Hinkley a 'litmus test' for investment EDF's decision on whether or not to proceed with Hinkley Point C will be a "litmus test" for invest- ment in big infrastructure projects post-Brexit, UK unions have said. Unite, UCATT, Prospect and the GMB union have reiterated their support for the project in a letter to EDF Energy chief executive Vincent de Rivaz, in anticipation of the conclusion of a consultation between the company and French unions. Unite national officer for energy, Kevin Coyne, said: "The final investment decision by EDF on Hinkley Point will be the first litmus test following the Brexit vote that much-needed invest- ment in large infrastructure pro- jects is still coming on stream." EMISSIONS UK 'can't rely on power sector' The UK cannot rely on the power sector to meet emissions reduc- tion targets, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) has said. The warning came as the government confirmed the fih carbon budget for 2028 to 2032, accepting the CCC's recommen- dation that emissions be reduced by an average of 57 per cent on 1990 levels over the period. In an annual progress report to parliament, the CCC said: "Whilst emissions have fallen by an average of 4.5 per cent a year since 2012, this has been almost entirely due to progress in the power sector, particularly reduced use of coal as government poli- cies have driven an expansion of renewable generation." On course: contribution of the power sector Political Agenda Mathew Beech Stability and politics are not two words that sit comfortably together at the moment. Michael Gove going behind Boris John- son's back to launch his own leadership bid, Jeremy Corbyn hanging on as Labour leader despite the majority of his MPs losing faith in him, and even Nigel Farage's decision to stand down again as Ukip leader all demonstrate this. However, amid the turmoil at Westminster, one moment of clarity has emerged: the signing much, saying: "Setting long-term targets to reduce our emis- sions is a fundamental part of building a secure, affordable and clean energy infrastructure system that our families and businesses can rely on and that is fit for the 21st century." Perhaps the promise for this to be the greenest government ever has not been completely lost. And agreement of the fih carbon budget is a reminder that, amid the internal bickering, decisions can, and must, still be made. of the fih carbon budget. This deal sees the government agree- ing to reduce emissions to an average of 57 per cent of 1990 levels between 2028 and 2032. Achieving this target will require power generation to reach an average carbon inten- sity of less than 100g CO2/kWh in 2030. Having these targets in place, with the leadership of both the UK's major political parties up in the air, will give the industry a clearer idea of where the sector is headed and, more impor- tantly, any potential investors. Energy secretary Amber Rudd, whose future looks increasingly shaky, admitted as "Amid the internal bickering, decisions must still be made"