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NETWORK / 37 / MAY 2016 enough, it is exacerbated by the fact that the mix of solutions will also look di erent in every geographical area, as it will be dependent on local resources and preferences. The approach being taken by the SSH programme is to rst develop and demonstrate the tools required to focus local area energy strategy and infra- structure deployment to build consensus amongst local stake- holders, such as Local Authori- ties and Network Operators. Secondly, the programme seeks to demonstrate and evaluate new domestic energy services that meet the requirements of residents. New domestic solutions will inevitably need to improve upon present consumer comfort and experience, whilst coping with massive seasonal and daily heat demand variations – rising from as low as 50GW in summer and peaking at 300GW in winter. Ensuring long term success The foundations of any long- term success in decarbonising heat will require the provision of improved products and services based on understanding how people use heat in their homes. Unsurprisingly, the work has shown that there are a large number of factors a ecting domestic behaviour and house- hold energy use. Consequently, there is a need to develop ‡ exible solutions that cater for a range of requirements, for example giving people better control of what they spend on heating. The ETI's Energy System Modelling Environment (ESME), a national energy system design and planning capability, illus- trates the preferences and trade- o s around the attainment of climate change mitigation objec- tives. Figure 1 shows potential space and water heat delivery in 2050, within the context of a least cost transition. This depicts the displace- ment of natural gas use for domestic heating, with a grow- ing dependence on low carbon heat distributed by local heat networks, alongside individual electric heat sources. Other solutions include low carbon gas and the retention of some natural gas for use in peak demand periods. The challenge is to identify the solutions that most e ectively meet the par- ticular needs and characteristics of individual local areas. Developing local area strategies To enable a cost e ective low-carbon transition, more advanced local area energy planning is needed to identify the right technologies in the right place, at the right time. These "right" solutions will be in‡ uenced by a number of variable factors, including local resources, political support and leadership, consumer and community preferences, technological innovation and cost. The ETI has, in partnership with local authorities, created a so— ware modelling tool, (Energy Path Networks), to help develop local area energy strategies. Energy Path Networks, and the capability of the ESC team, ena- bles the gathering and analysis of a wide range of data to create a local representation of all energy demand and supply for a local area. The tool maps the impact of future growth on local energy systems and develops pathways for a cost e ective, local, low carbon energy transition. These pathways re‡ ect the unique priorities of individual local authorities and work collabora- tively with electricity, gas and heat network operators on which energy options are most appropriate for a local area, and in what order they should be prioritised. The ESC is currently work- ing on the development of local strategies with Newcastle City Council, Bridgend County Coun- cil and the Greater Manchester Combined Authority. There are many known technologies and new domestic services which have great poten- tial, but it is not yet clear which will work at scale so di erent approaches need to be tested. As the ESC forges onward with demonstration projects under the SSH programme, the dynamics of applications of increasing scale in a variety of geographies will become clearer. As this happens we will have increasing power to evaluate and re ne the many human, technical and commercial fea- tures to prepare for the 50 times increase in deployment rate required, ultimately enabling the a ordable transition to low- carbon homes. Grant Bourhill, director, smart systems and heat, Energy Systems Catapault Figure 1: space and water heating Figure 2: the ETI's Energy Path Networks software tool Copyright of the ETI Copyright of the ETI