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NETWORK / 35 / MAY 2016 CLIM4ENERGY CLIM4ENERGY will deliver seasonal forecasts and climate projections for grid operators, large-scale electricity producers, renewable energy providers and energy policymakers. Applications in development include: u grid load balancing projections within the context of an increasingly variable production mix; u risk evaluations for energy infrastructure due to extreme and disruptive conditions; u predictions of changes in adverse weather or conditions for operations; u predictions of seasonal and climate change impacts on renewable resources. European Climatic Energy Mixes (ECEM) ECEM is using Copernicus data to develop a demonstrator to help the energy industry and policymakers assess how well different generation mixes will meet demand in a changing climate. It will examine the role of temperature in determining plant efficiency, the variability of renewable energies, and how climate affects demand variability. Tools in development include: u energy supply profiles for countries and generation types; u energy demand profiles for countries; u national assessments of energy system adequacy. Windstorm Information Service (WISC) The Wind Storm Information Service (WISC) is developing indicators of the severity and variability of European windstorms. Aimed primarily at the insurance sector, they will also give insight on windstorm risks to critical infrastructure. WISC indicators will include: u a database of historical windstorm tracks and footprints for Europe, covering approximately the last 100 years; u climate impact indicators to assess historical storm frequency, severity and resulting financial losses as functions of year and location; u forecast indicators of potential future windstorm risk under various climate change scenarios. How CoperniCus Can Help and preventing stranded assets, but has long-term implications for sustainability and security of supply. The information Copernicus provides could support the selection and manage- ment of generation sites, assist with day- to-day balancing, offer insight into the likelihood of faults, as well as help the sector assess risk due to extreme weather (wind, flooding, lightning, solar heat) – all to inform investment policy. For example, by harnessing insight into the probability of adverse weather condi- tions where grid infrastructure is planned, climate data could help companies make the case for undergrounding or reinforcement during price controls. Weekly atmospheric forecasts are already allowing planners to assess the likely yield of solar generation and solar panel mainte- nance needs. In future, climate projections could help provide the evidence base to invest in storage to reinforce security of sup- ply, make the most of low carbon generation and prevent assets from becoming stranded. What comes next? All the data that underpins the Coperni- cus programme is already available free to network companies. In addition, a number of services are already in devel- opment to transform this raw data into user friendly information. These include: • CLIM4ENERGY. Producing seasonal cli- mate forecasts with a focus on the energy sector to predict generation yield and assist with balancing. • European Climatic Energy Mixes (ECEM). Developing a demonstrator to help the energy industry and policymakers assess how well different energy supply mixes will meet demand in future. • Windstorm Information Service (WISC). Building a database of windstorm tracks and outline indicators of exposure and vulnerability, aimed primarily at the insurance sector. There is now an opportunity for compa- nies to shape this work at the developmental stage. Climate change, changes to the compo- sition of our atmosphere, extreme weather and the evolution of the UK generation mix are all realities that the networks commu- nity must face. Winter storms regularly leave thousands without power, while wind power is still regularly constrained off the grid. However, data and the climate indicators it can provide have the potential to transform the knowledge base that companies use to plan for the future. The UK government has identified that more than £40 billion in investment could be required in energy networks in the next five years. There is both a moral and economic imperative to ensure that it is well spent. Cli- mate data provides that opportunity. Jean-Noel Thepaut, head of climate change service, Copernicus The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) can be used to assess the yield of solar technology for both generators and grid operators. Above shows CAMS forecasting dust aerosols across Europe. The Copernicus atmosphere Monitoring service in action