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Policy & Regulation 12 | 4TH - 10TH DECEMBER 2015 | UTILITY WEEK Climate Change Renewables / Efficiency T he 21st session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Frame- work Convention on Climate Change, or COP21, currently meeting in Paris, is deemed to be a make or break summit in the global effort to tackle and limit the impact of climate change. Following the failure to secure a bind- ing agreement in Copenhagen in 2009, the need for action on greenhouse gas emissions is becoming acute. A report last year by the World Bank Group said that the globe had seen warming of 0.8C since pre-industrial times, and that with the emissions already released into the atmosphere, a warming of 1.5C has been "locked in". With global warming of less than 2C gen- erally seen as a sufficient to avoid dangerous climate change impacts, the need to reduce current emissions to ensure this limit is not breached is pressing. UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon has warned of "dire conse- quences" if the 2C limit is surpassed, and that with current emissions rates, the globe is heading towards a 6C temperature increase. French president Francois Hollande and Pope Francis are among those who have labelled COP21 a "last chance" to save the world from the worst that climate change threatens. It is hoped COP21 will lead to a legally binding agreement, but this could be difficult to achieve with some of the big pol- luters less willing to commit (see p13). Should an agreement be reached, there will be a need to continue with efforts to decarbonise the economy, as has been the general direction in the UK over recent par- liaments. However, today the forecast is that the UK will miss its 2020 target for 15 per cent of electricity to be generated from renewa- bles, and energy secretary Amber Rudd admits that the fourth carbon budget "is going to be tough to achieve" (see p14). Britain has also pushed ahead with put- ting a price on carbon, with the chancellor setting the carbon floor price – now frozen at £18 per tonne of carbon dioxide (t/CO2). This puts the UK cost of carbon ahead of that in the EU Emissions Trading System, which currently values carbon at €7.50 per t/CO2, considerably lower than UK levels. While reforms are underway to boost the EU carbon price, an effective way to tackle emissions, avoiding carbon leakage, would be for a global carbon trading market to be created. This would prevent carbon (and energy) intensive industries moving away from the UK and Europe, to areas with cheaper power and carbon prices. A new agreement is unlikely to signifi- cantly change UK energy policy, especially aer the recent "reset", but it will increase the pressure for more low-carbon genera- tion. The government is still making posi- tive noises, with chancellor George Osborne announcing in last week's spending review a "commitment to the Paris talks by increasing support for climate funds by 50 per cent". The statements coming from the Depart- ment of Energy and Climate Change are pro- green and appear to back this up, although there is the proviso that this cannot be done at any cost. As Rudd said in her policy reset: "Green energy must be cheap energy." Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels 1900-2011 Source: Boden, T.A., Marland, G., and Andres R.J. (2015). Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, doi 10.3334/ CDIAC/00001_V2015. With more than 190 nations represented at COP21, some key points will have to be addressed before a legally binding deal on climate change can emerge on 11 December. Carbon reduction vs economic growth l With coal remaining cheap, and developing nations seeking low- cost ways of generating electricity, weaning them off high carbon fuels will be difficult. A number of these nations take the view that they should be allowed to develop and press ahead, much as the wealthier nations have done. Financial assistance l One of the key things to emerge from COP15 in Copenhagen was the pledge for financial help from the richer nations to those less able to fund expensive low-carbon technology. This emerged as the $100 billion (£66 billion) annual Green Climate fund after COP16 in Mexico. Talks in Paris will look to reassure those developing nations set to benefit from this fund that the commitment will be met in full. l The poorer nations will also seek for this pledge – or something simi- lar – to be extended beyond 2020, but the debate will be over how this should be done. A legally binding target l After the failed attempts in Copenhagen in 2009, the aim of COP21 is clear: to agree legally binding climate change and green- house gas reduction targets. The disputes will be around the degree to which targets are voluntary or mandatory. How the targets are split will also be up for debate. Some countries have already set out their targets (see below): What we already know l The EU will cut its emissions by 40 per cent by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. l The US will cut its emissions by 26-28 per cent by 2025 compared with 2005 levels. l China will agree that its emissions in 2030 will be its peak, and will fall thereafter. Last chance COP21 Mathew Beech looks at what's at stake at the climate change talks in Paris. The big issues Million metric tonnes carbon dioxide 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,0000 1,000 0