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Utility Week 28th November 2014

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UTILITY WEEK | 28Th NovEmbEr - 4Th DEcEmbEr 2014 | 21 Finance & Investment delay, EDF has now confirmed that its first third-generation nuclear plant, Flamanville, should be commissioned in 2017; the pivotal decision on the go-ahead for Hinkley Point C is due next year. Germany's deteriorating macroeconomic situation is replicated by both RWE and Eon. Both companies are facing massive changes with nuclear power generation in Germany ceasing in 2022. Instead, Germany's Energiewende energy transition will involve vast investment in renewable power sources. Eon's 2014 nine-month figures saw a 7 per cent fall in Ebitda to €6.6 billion. For the full year, Eon is projecting Ebitda of between €8 billion and €8.6 billion: the 2013 compar- ative Ebitda was €9.4 billion. In Germany, Eon is still struggling against low wholesale prices and the plant merit order system that prioritises renewables output. And following Russia's annexation of Crimea, the collapsing rouble has adversely impacted Eon's returns from its heavy gen- eration investment in Russia. While its net debt is now down to €31 bil- lion, the fact remains that Eon's share price has halved over the past five years. Arguably, RWE's position is even worse; its shares have shed 60 per cent of their value since late 2009. RWE's recently released 2014 nine-month figures gave little reason for optimism. Ebitda was down by 22 per cent compared with 2013; for the full year, RWE is forecast- ing Ebitda to be between €6.4 billion and €6.8 billion. And its recurrent net income is forecast to fall very sharply – by around 60 per cent. RWE's net debt still exceeds €30 bil- lion, although some disposals are expected shortly, notably of RWE Dea – eventually. Iberdrola has performed more robustly of late and its shares have consequently rallied. In late October, Iberdrola confirmed an Ebitda rise of 1.4 per cent for the first nine months of 2014; its full-year forecast is €6.6 billion. Currently, almost half of its Ebitda arises from its networks businesses – the 2014 UK return was up by a robust 10 per cent over the first nine months of 2013. With more plants coming on-stream, Iberdrola's overall generation and supply Ebitda was up by 26 per cent. However, its Spanish renewable genera- tion Ebitda fell by a worrying 44 per cent, due to tighter regulation, low prices and inadequate wind speeds. But Iberdrola's net debt is moving in the right direction; excluding the tariff deficit, it is now below €25 billion. In summary, none of these companies – National Grid and Drax aside – is enjoying easy times; this is reflected by their lacklus- tre share price performances in recent years. Nigel Hawkins, director, Nigel Hawkins Associates naTional Grid Six monThS To 30 SepTember Operating profit Six months ended 30 September (£m) 2014 2013 % change UK electricity transmission 687 565 22 UK gas transmission 110 133 (17) UK gas distribution 434 456 (5) US regulated 307 330 (7) Other activities 73 88 (17) Group total operating profit 1,611 1,572 2 Other selected financial information Depreciation and amortisation (721) (690) (4) Net finance costs (492) (605) 19 Taxation (258) (225) (15) Share of post-tax results of joint ventures 18 12 50 Earnings attributable to non-controlling interests (4) (7) 43 Earnings attributable to equity shareholders 883 761 16 edF Group nine monThS To 30 SepTember € million 9M 2013 restated 9M 2014 % % forex % scope % organic France 29,095 29,123 0.1 - -0.4 0.5 UK 6,991 7,318 4.7 5.6 -0.1 -0.8 Italy 9,366 9,192 -1.9 - 0.5 -2.4 Other International 4,497 3,958 -12.0 -1.0 - -11.0 Other Activities 2,167 2,740 26.4 0.9 26.3 -0.8 International and Other Activities 23,021 23,208 0.8 1.6 2.7 -3.4 Group total 52,116 52,331 0.4 0.7 1.0 -1.3 RWE ninE MOnthS tO SEptEMbER 2014 Jan – Sep 2014 Jan – Sep 2013 % change Jan – Dec 2013 Electricity production (billion kWh) 151.2 160.7 -5.9 218.2 External electricity sales volume (billion kWh) 191.7 200.0 -4.2 270.9 External gas sales volume (billion kWh) 184.6 228.7 -19.3 320.7 External revenue (€ million) 35,288 38,698 -8.8 52,425 Ebitda (€ million) 4,700 6,048 -22.3 7,904 Operating result (€ million) 2,908 4,190 -30.6 5,369 Income from continuing operations before tax (€ million) 1,470 1,251 17.5 -2,016 Net income (€ million) 994 609 63.2 -2,757 Recurrent net income (€ million) 763 1,915 -60.2 2,314 Earnings per share (€) 1.62 0.99 63.6 -4.49 Recurrent net income per share (€) 1.24 3.12 -60.3 3.76 Cash flows from operating activities) of continuing operations (€ million) 4,759 4,503 5.7 4,803 Capital expenditure (€ million) 2,284 2,526 -9.6 3,978 Property, plant and equipment and intangible assets (€ million) 2,197 2,458 -10.6 3,848 Financial assets (€ million) 87 68 27.9 130 Free cash flow (€ million) 2,562 2,045 25.3 960 30 Sep 2014 31 Dec 2013 Net debt (€ million) 30,709 30,727 -0.1 Workforce 60,439 64,896 -6.9 EOn ninE MOnthS tO SEptEMbER 2014 January - September 2014 2013 % change Electricity sales 547.8 billion kWh 535.2 billion kWh +2 Gas sales 754.3 billion kWh 878.7 billion kWh -14 Sales €81,348 million €89,328 million -9 Ebitda €6,637 million €7,128 million -7 Ebit €3,912 million €4,455 million -12 Underlying net income €1,435 million €1,901 million -25 Investments €3,144 million €6,323 million -50 Cash provided by operating activities of continuing operations €7,537 million €5,341 million +41 Economic net debt (September 30 and December 31) €31,009 million €32,218 million -4 Employees (September 30 and December 31) 59,956 62,239 -4 Shares outstanding (in millions, September 30 and December 31) 1,932 1,908 +1

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