Utility Week

UTILITY WEEK | NOVEMBER 2022 | 19 Electricity Opinion Ben Wilson Chief strategy offi cer, National Grid N ational Grid is planning for every eventuality this winter. As published in the Winter Outlooks, the base case modelling by the Electric- ity System Operator (ESO) and Gas System Operator – which is the most likely scenario over the coming months – shows that there will be su• cient supply of electricity and gas to meet customer demand. The alternative scenario provided by the ESO shows that some consumers may see disruptions to power if there is no electricity being exported from Europe and there are also interruptions to the UK's gas supplies. As the sector will know, these scenarios are not forecasts and the system operators have a range of tools to help them reduce demand if it looks like it may outstrip supply. There are immediate and long-term actions that we can swi„ ly take together to make power cuts even less likely this winter. First, we must collectively encourage all eligible businesses and households to sign up to the ESO's Demand Reduction Ser- vice, launching next month. This is new and innovative technol- ogy. Put simply, the more people who sign up, the more demand can be spread over the course of a day and the less likely margins are to tighten. Second, we must ensure that we collaborate – with the inten- tion to quickly act – on remov- ing the hurdles to delivering the clean energy infrastructure that will create a more energy independent UK. This will not only remove the possibility of gas being weaponised, but with the right regulatory and policy framework will deliver jobs, growth and inward investment to the UK. For this to happen, planning policy must be streamlined, anticipatory investment must be unlocked through clari‹ cation of regulation, and communities must understand how they will bene‹ t from hosting this criti- cal national infrastructure. In achieving this, we will not only further strengthen security of supply but also unlock a green jobs pipeline. Third, we must continue to work with our European neighbours. Collaboration must not be limited to within our sector and energy sharing must continue over the winter months. We welcome the recent progress made towards rejoining the North Sea Energy Coordina- tion Group. This three-pronged approach will be key to protecting con- sumers this winter and during the decades ahead. One further, immediate, action that must be taken is for the sector, government and the regulator to consider how it can support vulnerable customers in the unlikely event that discon- nections are mandated by the ESO. We must ensure that this is a priority over the weeks ahead. Consumers will, rightly, be look- ing to the sector for guidance and support. Over the long term, a shi„ to clean energy is the clearest route to getting bills back down again, and to increased security of supply. As we progress this transition together, we must also collaborate meaningfully on supporting vulnerable custom- ers this winter. The immediate and long-term actions needed to protect consumers Figure 1. Supply margin in relation to generation capacity and demand Figure 3. Range of outcomes for the daily operational surplus in our Base Case under different supply and demand conditions Figure 2. Historic de-rated margin forecasts made ahead of each winter in the Winter Outlook Report (i.e. not out-turns) 1 Source: National Grid ESO Winter Outlook, October 2022

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