Utility Week

24 | MARCH 2022 | UTILITY WEEK Water Analysis We've all got to use less water or risk running on empty Ruth Williams looks at the first three water resource plans to emerge – from the East, South East, and West – as water companies try to stave off future water shortages. E ngland could be facing a worse water deficit than calculated two years ago, according to data from regional water plans, which highlighted the frightening deficit the country could face if no action is taken. More than 3,400 megalitres of water are expected to be needed daily by 2050 with demand highest in parts of the country where population is set to boom. The need for water efficiency has never been greater and there are increasing calls for collaboration on managing resources to balance the risks of flood and drought. There are five regional water resource management groups in England that have assessed count- less scenarios for the coming decades to advise what interventions are needed to keep the taps flowing. Here, Utility Week examines the first three sets of plans from Water Resources East (WRE), Water Resources South East (WRSE), and West Country Water Resource Group (WCWRG) on the specific challenges each area faces and what the groups recommend to avoid shortages. Plans have set out how to manage the predicted shortfall, which is 1,500 megalitres more than estimated in the 2020 National Framework. Demand reduction is set to play a critical role in every region alongside major infrastructure projects. The South and East are the most water- stressed parts of the country and with popu- lation growth forecast to be highest in these parts, the pressures on demand will increase. Around 50% of the national need will be in the South East, which is also home to more chalk streams than anywhere in the world. WRSE's plan To protect the environment in the face of spiralling demand, WRSE proposes adding three new reservoirs, a desalination plant and five water recycling schemes by 2040. The measures are part of the group's three- phase strategy to ensure adequate supplies in the region over the next 75 years. The six member water companies of WRSE are Ports- mouth, Affinity, SES, South East, Southern, and Thames. Phase one addresses a scenario that fore- casts, without action, an extra one billion litres of water a day will be needed in the region between 2025 and 2040 because of population growth and the effects of climate change. The next phase, covering 2040 to 2060, branches into three scenarios reflecting dif- fering levels of population growth and suc- cess in the prior phase. Each scenario has a corresponding strategy featuring varying combinations of transfers, desalination, water recycling and demand management. The preferred path at phase two will be dependent on the outcome of phase one. They similarly branch into nine total scenar- ios for phase three covering the period 2060 to 2100. WRSE says demand management from water efficiency, leakage reduction and drought management measures such as hosepipe bans could meet, offset or elimi- nate 54% of the forecast one billion litres of additional daily demand by 2040, while three new reservoirs could meet another 21%. Drought orders and permits, which will remain in place to 2040, could cover a fur- ther 9%, as could water recycling, and 5% could be met through increased capacity at treatment works or expansions to the distri- bution network. The cost of these measures would be £8 billion, with £5.1 billion being spent on water efficiency and leakage. WRSE says that in the most extreme sce- nario for phase two, daily water demand would increase by 2.6 billion litres between 2025 and 2060 based on forecast population growth of 5.3 million over the period. It says the region would be more reliant on water recycling and transfers from other parts of the country in this scenario, with another 10 water recycling schemes, six more desalina- tion plants and five further reservoirs provid- ing 1.6 billion litres of additional water per day to help meet the increase in demand. Given the growing uncertainty beyond 2040, WRSE chair Chris Murray, tells Util- ity Week: "We need to get on with some 'no regrets' investment quickly and then make sure we have flexibility to adapt as things emerge." He believes input from outside the sector is needed around education and behaviour change: "We need to get the message across that there is a major problem here and how people can be part of the solution. As a coun- try we have woken up the challenge of cli- mate change but not yet on the water front. Who will be our Greta Thunberg for water?" The first phase focuses heavily on demand management, which the group anticipates will be advanced by innovation and new technology during that time, particularly for leakage. Managing director Trevor Bishop adds that the scale of demand reduction is profound compared to what has been done previously and would require mass smart metering as well as behaviour change. Demand set to soar in the East Demand could double in the east of England by 2050, according to WRE, which calls for demand management, new reservoirs, desal- ination, effluent re-use and aquifer storage and recovery.

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