Utility Week

UTILITY WEEK | JANUARY 2022 | 39 tion methodology, Anusha Arva, innovation engineer for National Grid, tells Utility Week Innovate that there are still several aspects of this approach that need to be conclusively established before the technology can be deemed ready for wider use. The project's next steps, she explains, involve testing updated methodology against measurements from speci• cally chosen sec- tions of the transmission network – which comprises approximately 4,475 miles of over- head line, 932 miles of underground cable and close to 350 substations – using devices such as local weather stations and overhead line measurement sensors. "We plan to carry out further research to address the key unknowns around the tech- nology, some of which, have come to light during our • rst project," she says. "A few examples of such unknowns are: determining how close the numerically pre- dicted weather forecasts are to real weather conditions by comparing them against measurements from local weather stations installed on overhead line routes, under- standing the risks involved in using proba- bilistic weather forecasting, and optimising the timescales and volumes of weather data that would be ideal for forecasting overhead line ratings through DLR approach. "Further, we plan to examine if combin- ing weather forecasting data with measure- ments from the overhead line conductors can provide tangible improvements in rating forecasts." Reducing reliance on fossil fuels While Met O' ce knowledge and expertise make it possible for more accurate and gran- ular weather data to better determine where and when capacity can be boosted, Arva says it also means that National Grid can become less reliant on fossil fuel generation and avoid constraint payments to generators to address grid congestion. "When power ' ows are limited, gen- erators must be coordinated to ensure that demand can be met, without exceeding the maximum ratings of any asset in the system," she explains. "This results in con- straint payments being paid to generators, as they are not able to operate at maximum power during these times. "These constraints result in fossil fuel technologies being used at times where, if not for the constraining transmission asset, a renewable technology would have provided the energy instead. "National Grid is attempting to alleviate these scenarios by providing enhanced rat- ings in speci• c circumstances by carrying out the innovations to de-risk the DLR tech- nology for use on the network. This reduces the number of times that constraints occur on the system, and the severity of those constraints." Ultimately, Pearman believes the pro- ject has the potential to provide signi• cant improvements in weather forecast accu- racy for the energy sector alongside novel approaches to quantifying uncertainty in the forecast. "These can be applied to increase con• dence in uprating decisions to help achieve the ' exibility requirements on the path towards net zero," she says. Wider adaptation Additionally, cases such as the collapse of Lancaster's critical infrastructure networks and a 30-hour absence of electricity across more than 60,000 homes amid record-break- ing rainfall in early December 2015, have fur- ther highlighted the importance of climate adaptation. Subsequent projects have sought to fur- ther understand the impact of weather and establish how infrastructure owners and operators can identify vulnerability and risk to assets. For example, an ongoing collaboration between the University of Birmingham and Electricity North West has set out to examine whether historic sub-regional wind speed and direction data can help network opera- tors predict weather-related faults and factor them into asset management. The ' agship example of climate adap- tation in the water sector is arguably the Thames Estuary 2100 Plan, which sets out how the Environment Agency and a ' eet of project partners can collaboratively manage tidal ' ood risk in the Thames Estuary amid climate change, ageing ' ood defences and population growth. The plan – designed to adapt to diœ erent rates of sea level rise and changes aœ ecting the estuary – aims to protect 1.4 million peo- ple and £320 billion-worth of property and critical infrastructure from increasing tidal ' ood risk across three project phases. The • rst phase – timed between 2012 and 2035 – prioritises maintaining and improving current ' ood risk management assets, work- ing with communities to develop visions for their future riversides and identifying and protecting land needed for future improve- ments to ' ood defences. Phase two, slated for between 2035 and 2050, will focus on raising existing ' ood walls, embankments and smaller barriers, reshaping the riverside through develop- ment, to improve ' ood defences, create habitat and improve access to the river and determining the preferred option for the future Thames Barrier – which is expected to continue to protect London to its current standard up until 2070. Finally, phase three, 2050 to 2100, con- tains plans to develop and implement a selected option for the future Thames Barrier, adapt other ' ood risk management assets to work alongside this to protect the estuary. Stuart Stone, UW Innovate editor Utility Week Live 2022 See this content brought to life at Utility Week Live, 17-18 May 2022, NEC Birmingham New approaches to asset management and maintenance is one of the frontline challenges at the heart of Utility Week Live 2022's live content programme. View the challenges and be alerted for tickets to the industry's most eagerly awaited reunion at utilityweeklive.co.uk The the three-phase Thames Estuary 2100 plan is a headline-grabbing climate adaption project

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