Utility Week

UTILITY WEEK | 6TH - 12TH DECEMBER 2019 | 7 Election 2019 renewables is great and clearly will play a bigger and bigger role, but all three parties are making unrealistic assumptions about how big a proportion of electricity can be generated by intermittent renewables," he says. His argument is that once intermittent sources exceed 50 per cent of generation, the costs required to provide backup power become he• y given that cheap long-term energy storage is not yet available. "I would have been reassured with a more solid recognition of that," says Yeo, who now chairs the New Nuclear Watch Institute. As for the most tried and tested renew- able technologies, onshore wind and solar, the manifesto is silent. This lack of attention to onshore wind in particular is a "missed opportunity", says Bright Blue's Hall, given that the technology generates the cheapest form of renewable electricity on the market. But Richard Howard, research director at Aurora Energy, says this silence may give a potential future Tory energy ministers "more wriggle room" on the issue than their prede- cessors. Even Claire Perry, a strong supporter of clean energy, felt bound by the eˆ ective ban on onshore wind and solar written into the party's previous two manifestos. "Things are diˆ erent now to four years ago. Some minds have been changed and there's been a turning of the tide on this issue, although that's not to say there aren't people who would still be in favour of a ban," says Hall. However, many feel that the manifesto doesn't provide enough clues about the road- map that the Conservatives, who remain Š rm favourites to win next week's election, will use to get to reach net zero. "Very vague," is how Yeo describes the manifesto. Howard, who is a former head of the environment and energy unit at the right-of- centre Policy Exchange thinktank, agrees the manifesto lacks a "coherent, over-arching plan". He says: "There are some good things in the manifesto but they don't add up to a whole and there are a lot more details that need to be added." It could be suggested that the relatively relaxed timetable the Tories have set them- selves means they have time on their side. But that's not the case, argues Chris Hewett, chief executive of the STA (Solar Trade Asso- ciation). Key decisions need to be made over the next decade in order to meet the 2050 target, he says: "We were looking for some kind of pathway to 2030 and you can't dis- cern that from this manifesto. "[The decade] 2020 to 2030 is a very important part and the Š rst part of that path- way, so we would hope to see all manifestos setting out that detail. "Solar has been operating in a policy vacuum for the past year and this manifesto does nothing to Š ll that." Energy UK's head of public aˆ airs, Simon Markall, points out that the clock is ticking with 2050 only 30 years away. Expressing "disappointment" about the "lack of clarity on how to get to net zero", he says: "We've got 120 quarters, which is not that many and we need action rather than words." There is a big diˆ erence between targets and action, says Yeo: "Everybody is setting quite challenging targets but they are all weakened considerably by the absence of credible actions to achieve them. "Setting a target is easy, it's like pluck- ing a Š gure out of thin air, but to be credible there needs to be much more backup detail about how they are proposing to deliver it." Realistic targets Unlike some other parties, at least the targets in the Conservative manifesto are realistic though, says Howard. In a new report for the right-wing think- tank Onward, he challenges the feasibility of the 2025 net zero emissions target pro- pounded so enthusiastically by the Extinc- tion Rebellion campaign. To take just one example of how diž - cult this lo• y ambition would be to achieve, Howard says it would require replacing six million existing UK diesel and petrol cars with EVs every year between now and the middle of the next decade. This is equiva- lent to three times the total world production of EVs, he says: "With the best will in the world, we might hit six million sales glob- ally, but not in the UK [alone]. 2025 is not a credible timeline to do this. "Extinction Rebellion says it wants to tell the truth on climate but I want Extinction Rebellion to tell the truth on climate. They haven't shown how that can be achieved and how it is possible within that time frame," says Howard, who adds that even the Labour party conference target of 2030 is "diž cult to¡believe". However, he acknowledges that the le• has succeeded in capturing the climate change debate over recent years, both in the UK and the US, where it has become a rally- ing point in the race for the Democrat party presidential nomination candidates like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. "Conservatives need to have an answer to that, and not just in the UK. They need a nar- rative so that parties on the right can demon- strate they care about the environment and the climate," says Howard. To counter this narrative means develop- ing the kind of coherent policy response to climate change that former energy secretary Greg Clark was attempting to achieve with his never published Energy White Paper, as opposed to the shopping list of initiatives outlined in the Conservative manifesto. In his new report, Howard says this Conservative narrative should be based "To think CCUS is going to make a big contribution in the 2020s is a complacent and dangerous assumption that nobody is challenging." Tim Yeo, chair, New Nuclear Watch Institute "The Conservatives need a narrative so that parties on the right can demonstrate they care about the environment and the climate." Richard Howard, research director, Aurora Energy continued overleaf

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