Utility Week

10 | 29TH MARCH - 4TH APRIL 2019 | UTILITY WEEK Policy & Regulation Analysis A rousing speech from Sir James Bevan, chief executive of the Environment Agency, has put water e ciency back on the national agenda. His use of the words "jaws of death" may have had something to do with that – part of a stark warning that England could be just 25 years away from not having enough water to meet demand. Delivering his keynote address at the annual Waterwise conference in London on 19 March – which was four-times larger than last year – he said water companies all iden- tiˆ ed climate change as "the biggest operat- ing risk" in their business plans for PR19. "It's not just almost every scientist in the world who believes [climate change] is hap- pening, but hardnosed companies that are making investment decisions based on their belief that it's a 'Thing'. They would not be spending hundreds of millions of pounds a year on greater resilience in the face of some- thing for which there was not compelling evidence," he said. Several water companies were a" ected by the extreme weather events of last year – the Beast from the East and subsequent rapid thaw, followed by one of the hottest and dri- est summers on record – so the water sec- tor is all too aware of the impact of climate change on "business as usual". Sir James said the second thing you ˆ nd in all the water companies' PR19 business plans is a chart, "known by some as the jaws of death – though that's not what they call it in the glossy business plans". "This chart draws two lines across the X/Y axis. The ˆ rst shows predicted water demand over the next several decades in the region the water company serves. In all the water company plans this line goes up, as more people, homes, and businesses appear over time. "The second line shows the water that will be available to supply those needs: and in all the water company plans this line goes down, as the e" ects of climate change kick in." He added: "And somewhere out along the timeline, usually around the 20-25 years from now mark, those lines cross. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the jaws of death – the point at which, unless we take action to change things, we will not have enough water to supply our needs. "Self-evidently, avoiding something called the jaws of death is by and large the sensible thing to do." Climate change Sir James went on to outline the impact cli- mate change is likely to have in years to come. Last year's heatwave could become the norm as summers become hotter and drier. By 2040 more than half of UK summers are expected to exceed 2003 temperatures, he said. This will mean more water short- ages, higher drought risks and less predict- able rainfall. "By 2050 the amount of water available could be reduced by 10-15 per cent, with some rivers seeing 50 per cent to 80 per cent less water during the summer months," he said. On present projections many parts of the country will face "signiˆ cant water deˆ - cits" by 2050, particularly in the South East where much of the population lives. And by that time the UK population is expected to rise from 67 million to 75 million. More people means greater demand for water, and the environment will need more water too, the EA chief advised. Sir James warned that chalk streams, which are "extremely rare" – most are in England – are "under threat". Chalk streams are "geologically vital" and support a rich biodiversity such as trout, voles, otters and kingˆ shers. "They are under threat because their aquifers currently provide drinking water for millions in southeast England, and that is unsustainable in the long term," Sir James said. The Environment Agency is working with water companies to reduce – or in some cases end – abstraction from chalk streams. Both sides of the equation In the face of water scarcity, said Sir James, "both sides of the equation" must be tackled – reducing demand and increasing supply. "The good news is we can do both." He suggested demand can be reduced by tackling leaks, more water metering, sustain- able drainage, new building regulations to drive greater water e ciency, and ˆ nding ways to cut the amount of water we use. "We will need to see more water transfers between regions from areas of water surplus to areas of deˆ cit. There's scope to do much more here: currently only 4 per cent of water supplies are transferred between individual water companies," he said. In his speech, Sir James also said more desalination plants will have to be built – he described Thames Water's Beckton plant as "impressive". "And most controversially of all," he said, "we will need to build new reservoirs. "Creating some of that new infrastruc- ture will be challenging: we have not built a new reservoir in the UK for decades, largely because clearing all the planning and legal hurdles necessary is so di cult and local opposition so ˆ erce." But he said that while there will be "political challenges", there should be "less di culty" over the economics. "That's because the investment needed to build the infrastructure we need to increase our resilience is mod- est compared with the cost of not doing it," he said. Derek Stork, chairman of the Group Against Reser- voir Development, said it is "deeply disappointing" the head of the Environment Agency is backing the idea of new reservoirs. He argues that the Environment Agency opposed new reser- voirs in a 2010 pub- lic inquiry and that there are a "num- ber" of alterna- tive options such as increasing water transfers and reducing leakage. Dodging the 'jaws of death' The chief executive of the Environment Agency has used dramatic language to describe the threat of water shortages caused by climate change. Katey Pigden asks if he was right to do so.

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