Utility Week

UTILITY WEEK | 8TH - 14TH FEBRUARY 2019 | 21 Operations & Assets erate progress by convincing local authori- ties to relax informal planning restrictions on turbine size on the basis that it is better to have fewer, larger turbines. This would increase load factors and lower costs. To close some of the gap by using off- shore wind, Marshall says the government would need to raise capacity caps in CfD auctions and, depending on the extent of price cannibalisation, hike budgets as well. The cancellation of Moorside, Wylfa Newydd and Oldbury creates more room for spend- ing under the Control for Low Carbon Levies (formerly the Levy Control Framework) that could be diverted elsewhere. One option would be to double the num- ber of auctions during the 2020s so they take place annually rather than every two years. "Within a few years you'd have topped up the offshore wind you're bringing online to almost fill that gap," Marshall says. Baseload generation But Weijie Mak, GB power market lead at Aurora Energy Research, says this is about more than just replacing "terawatt hours for terawatt hours". Wind and solar provide significantly less firm capacity per gigawatt of nameplate capacity, so it would need to come from somewhere else. Although flexibility from batteries and demand-side response could do a lot of the work, Mak says that unless a source of inex- pensive, large-scale power storage emerges, Britain may have to "rely on more gas gen- eration for backup". Mike Hemsley, CCC senior power analyst, agrees. He says the absence of all but a few nuclear plants from the CCC's scenarios is not a reflection of nuclear's value (or lack of it) to the UK energy system. Some baseload generation, he says, will probably be needed in the 2030s and beyond, especially if heat- ing is electrified at scale. "If you do go down an electrification of heat route and need a lot of baseload power, then that's either nuclear or maybe bioenergy with CCS [carbon capture and storage] or gas with CCS," he explains. "It's hard to see what else could fill that gap. You could have a bit more progress with flexibility options to ena- ble a smoothing of the renewables portfolio… but it's unlikely that will be able to replace [nuclear] in a like-for-like way." The CCC has already urged the govern- ment on several occasions to formulate a backup plan in case the nuclear programme falters. Given the need for some baseload generation, Hemsley says this plan B should probably include the development of CCS infrastructure. Finally there is the matter of integrating renewables into the energy system. "A high renewables system is a highly volatile sys- tem, with low inertia and greater changes in frequency," says Cornwall's Edwards. "That means more stuff for the system operator to do… In a renewable world, we have to have a smarter, quick-reacting system." By the time the generation gap arises in the 2030s, the UK may already have reached this point, Edwards says. Maintaining the stability of the power grid would, for exam- ple, require greater volumes of frequency response. Britain would therefore need to build more batteries or develop the capabil- ity to provide frequency response from wind. While the Moorside, Wylfa Newydd and Oldbury projects could certainly still be revived, to assume that will happen would be foolish. If the UK is to adhere to its long- term climate change commitments, then the government needs to start developing an alternative route to decarbonisation. Not without reason, ministers appear to have developed an obsession with pushing mature renewables to fend for themselves. But as wholesale prices are depressed by existing subsidised renewables, it will become increasingly questionable to consider them a reflection of the "subsidy- free" rate and rely on them to drive investment. Far more important is the overall cost to consumers. And on this front, renewables are gradually becoming the new yardstick against which others are measured. The recent announcements from Toshiba and Hitachi should provide even more reason to resume support for onshore wind and solar, as many have been demanding for years. Although accelerating the move to a system dominated by renewables will no doubt be challenging, it also presents a huge opportunity for the UK to become a global leader and export its successes to the rest of the world. One door may have closed, but another is still wide open. WIND AND NUCLEAR CAPACITY ONSHORE WIND INSTALLATIONS NEW-BUILD NUCLEAR CAPACITY 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Hinkley Point C MW GW Moorside Wylfa Oldbury Sizewell C Bradwell B Note: Figure for Bradwell based on the output of one reactor. Lead developer CGN has not yet decided how many reactors the power station will feature. 3.3 3.4 2.9 2.9 3.3 1.2 Source: Renewable UK

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