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NETWORK / 38 / SEPTEMBER 2018 ROUNDTABLE T here was once a time when you could be reasonably certain about where the energy industry was headed. Sure, there were changes, but they happened relatively slowly and were usually signposted well in advance. The same is not true today. Driven by the need to decar - bonise, the energy system is undergoing an unprecedented transformation that leaves a big question mark over its ultimate destiny. It is a well-worn phrase that there is no "silver bullet" for the challenges the industry faces, but there are now so many potential solutions on offer they could probably fill the ammo box of a belt-fed machine gun. All this uncertainty creates a big problem for policy-makers and regulators. How do you cre - ate policy and regulatory frame- work with enough stability to enable long-term investments, whilst also ensuring that it has enough flexibility to help, rather than hinder, the development of unforeseen innovations? Mulling over the problem at a recent roundtable discussion hosted by Network and National Grid industry figures began by setting out some of the specific sources of uncertainty by which the industry is beset. Decarbonisation First on the list was the afore- mentioned decarbonisation. Attendees agreed there is a reasonable level of certainty over the broad direction of travel within the power sector, although less certainty over the pace. The pillars of policy How do you create infrastructure policy in an uncertain world? A recent roundtable discussion hosted by Network and National Grid sought to find out. Tom Grimwood was there. They said the same is true for the transport sector, where there is now a consensus that battery electric vehicles will be the go to replacement for old petrol and diesel cars. What is less clear is when we will reach the tipping point at which EVs become the cheaper option and mass adop - tion quickly ensues. The greatest uncertainty, however, concerns the future of heating. The government is still the best part of a decade away from deciding between the two main options of electrification and hydrogen gas grids. A huge section of the industry is le‰ unsure whether they have any is also likely to become more diversified, with different solu - tions in different parts of the country depending on the avail- able resources. There is also the question of the relationship between the lo- cal and the national. Will there merely be more interactions between distribution and trans- mission, or will there be a more fundamental change with the energy system being balanced from the bottom up? Likewise, the future energy system is undoubtably going to be more digitalised. But given the pace of technologi - cal change, what exactly this long-term future at all. Decentralisation and digitalisation Next came the other two of the so called three Ds – decentrali- sation and digitalisation. The future energy system is definitely going to be more decentralised than it is now, but it is uncertain to what degree. According to National Grid's lat- est Future Energy Scenarios any- where from 38 per cent to 65 per cent of generation capacity will be local by the time we hit the middle of the century, compared to just 27 per cent today. One attendee suggested it