Utility Week

12 | 20TH - 26TH JULY 2018 | UTILITY WEEK Policy & Regulation Analysis I t's once again the time of year when National Grid gazes deep into its crystal ball and tries to work out what the future holds for Britain's rapidly changing energy system. The system operator has just published the latest issue of its annual Future Energy Scenarios report, which this year has been reframed around the issue of decentralisa- tion. It throws up some surprising and posi- tive takeaways for the sector, not least the rapid uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) and huge amount of storage they could provide. In last year's report, the four scenarios it painted were divided between those in which progress on decarbonisation is stronger or weaker, and those in which the country is more prosperous or less prosperous. This time around, the scenarios are still split according to the strength of progress towards decarbonisation. However, the other division is now between an energy system that is more centralised or less centralised. Decentralisation All four scenarios envision an explosion in generation capacity over the coming decades, much of it local. The smallest increase is seen in the Consumer Evolution scenario, in which decarbonisation is sluggish but the energy system is highly decentralised. Capacity rises from 103GW today to 125GW in 2030 and then 178GW in 2050. The biggest increase comes in the Community Renewables scenario. Generation capacity reaches 158GW by 2030, of which 48GW is distributed generation and 23GW is microgeneration. Together they make up 45 per cent of the total. Capacity continues climbing all the way up to 268GW by 2050, with distributed gen- eration and microgeneration accounting for 65 per cent of the total at 91GW and 82GW respectively. The scenario with the least local gen- eration is Steady Progression. Total capac- ity grows to 189GW by 2050 but only 38 per cent of this is local, consisting of 44GW of distributed generation and 27GW of microgeneration. However, even in this scenario the energy system is far more decentralised than is cur- rently the case. At the moment, Great Britain has 23GW of distributed generation and 5GW of microgeneration, representing just 27 per cent of total capacity. Decarbonisation More than anything else, the transforma- tion of the energy system is being driven by decarbonisation. As its name suggests, the Two Degrees scenario represents the fastest progress on this front. The carbon intensity of the power grid falls from 266gCO2/kWh currently to 48gCO2/kWh in 2030 and 20gCO2/kWh in 2050. By the middle of the century, low- carbon generation capacity reaches 160GW, of which 130GW is renewable. There is a massive expansion in solar and offshore wind capacity, which rises from 12GW and 6GW today to 44GW and 43GW in 2050. Onshore wind capacity also increases significantly from 12GW to 22GW. Nuclear plays the most prominent role in this scenario, more than doubling from 9GW to nearly 19GW. Gas capacity, which currently stands at 35GW, drops to less than 10GW. There is also 12GW of carbon capture and storage (CCS) enabled generation. Despite a higher carbon intensity of 32gCO2/kWh, low-carbon capacity is great- est in the Community Renewables scenario, exploding to 178GW in 2050. Solar and onshore wind in particular are much higher at 66GW and 50GW respectively, although offshore wind capacity is quite a bit lower than in the Two Degrees scenario, at 33GW. Nuclear generation plays a more limited role, falling to 3GW in 2030 before return- ing to 9GW in 2050. Gas generation hangs around on the system for much longer, still totalling 23GW as we head into the second half of the century, and there is no CCS- enabled generation at all. Progress on decarbonisation is most muted in the Consumer Evolution scenario. By the end of the next decade, the carbon intensity of the power grid is 146gCO2/kWh – around one-and-a-half times the 2030 tar- get for the sector. In 2050, the figure is still 72gCO2/kWh – more than three times that of the Two Degrees scenario. Nevertheless, there is a substantial increase in low-carbon generation, although much less so than in the Two Degrees and Community Renewables scenarios. Solar grows to 36GW, onshore wind to 33GW and offshore wind to 22GW. Gas capacity ini- tially rises to 43GW in 2030 before dipping to 40GW in 2050. Nuclear capacity rises only slightly, to just under 10GW. Shortly aer the launch of last year's report, the government revealed plans to ban the sale of new diesel and petrol vehicles in 2040. The proposals were recently fleshed out in its Road to Zero strategy for decarbon- ising road transport (see pages 10-11). It is therefore unsurprising that this year's report once again places plenty of focus on the rise of electric vehicles (EVs). In light of the proposed ban, National Grid has mas- sively ramped up its forecasts for the number of EVs coming to Britain's roads. The system operator now expects there Four scenarios for the future National Grid has published its annual Future Energy Scenarios report, which this time adds a focus of energy system centralisation alongside progress on decarbonisation. Tom Grimwood reports. The four scenarios The four energy scenarios have been devised by National Grid to cover the four most credible directions in which the UK energy system might develop. Consumer Evolution. Decarbonisation is slower and climate change targets are not met. The energy system is more centralised. Community Renewables. Decarbonisation is faster and climate change targets are met. The energy system is less centralised. Steady Progression. Decarbonisation is slower and climate change targets are not met. The energy system is more centralised. Two Degrees. Decarbonisation is faster and climate change targets are met. The energy system is more centralised.

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